Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China
A recovery of near-surface wind speed (SWS) in the last decade has been reported over China; nevertheless, the contributions of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations (LOACs) to the SWS changes are rarely investigated. In this study, the turning point (TP) of the terrestrial stilling was validate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe2cd |
| _version_ | 1797747774821761024 |
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| author | Jinlin Zha Cheng Shen Deming Zhao Jian Wu Wenxuan Fan |
| author_facet | Jinlin Zha Cheng Shen Deming Zhao Jian Wu Wenxuan Fan |
| author_sort | Jinlin Zha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A recovery of near-surface wind speed (SWS) in the last decade has been reported over China; nevertheless, the contributions of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations (LOACs) to the SWS changes are rarely investigated. In this study, the turning point (TP) of the terrestrial stilling was validated over eastern China for 1979–2017. Furthermore, a forward stepwise regression algorithm was used to assess the contribution of LOACs to SWS changes. The results revealed that the TP of the SWS reversal occurred in approximately 2011 during the study period. Mean annual and seasonal SWSs exhibited decreases before the TP, with the largest decrease in spring (–0.134 ± 0.014 m s ^−1 decade ^−1 ), while SWSs increased after the TP, most strongly in autumn (0.377 ± 0.053 m s ^−1 decade ^−1 ). The SWS decrease before the TP and increase after the TP were caused by the decreasing and increasing frequencies of strong windy days (>75th percentile of SWS), respectively. The effects of LOACs on the long-term changes of SWS were pronounced. The contributions of LOACs to the decreasing and increasing trends of SWSs were >60.0%, with the exception of autumn. The projected SWSs exhibited increases in the near-term (2021–2040) for the low-emission scenarios (e.g. Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245). For the mid-term and long-term projections, the SWSs still displayed a downward trend, which was mainly attributed to the reduction of strong windy days. Consequently, the present SWS recovery in the recent decade may be only expected to last for a short amount of time before winds start decreasing again. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1b7fbdbb4dcd4ad482ae513e1ef46607 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:26Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b7fbdbb4dcd4ad482ae513e1ef466072023-08-09T14:54:33ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116303402810.1088/1748-9326/abe2cdSlowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern ChinaJinlin Zha0Cheng Shen1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1727-2638Deming Zhao2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0063-9376Jian Wu3Wenxuan Fan4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2457-5821CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100029, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region, Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University , Kunming 650091, People’s Republic of ChinaGaochun Meteorological Bureau , Nanjing 211300, People’s Republic of ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100029, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region, Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University , Kunming 650091, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region, Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University , Kunming 650091, People’s Republic of ChinaA recovery of near-surface wind speed (SWS) in the last decade has been reported over China; nevertheless, the contributions of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations (LOACs) to the SWS changes are rarely investigated. In this study, the turning point (TP) of the terrestrial stilling was validated over eastern China for 1979–2017. Furthermore, a forward stepwise regression algorithm was used to assess the contribution of LOACs to SWS changes. The results revealed that the TP of the SWS reversal occurred in approximately 2011 during the study period. Mean annual and seasonal SWSs exhibited decreases before the TP, with the largest decrease in spring (–0.134 ± 0.014 m s ^−1 decade ^−1 ), while SWSs increased after the TP, most strongly in autumn (0.377 ± 0.053 m s ^−1 decade ^−1 ). The SWS decrease before the TP and increase after the TP were caused by the decreasing and increasing frequencies of strong windy days (>75th percentile of SWS), respectively. The effects of LOACs on the long-term changes of SWS were pronounced. The contributions of LOACs to the decreasing and increasing trends of SWSs were >60.0%, with the exception of autumn. The projected SWSs exhibited increases in the near-term (2021–2040) for the low-emission scenarios (e.g. Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245). For the mid-term and long-term projections, the SWSs still displayed a downward trend, which was mainly attributed to the reduction of strong windy days. Consequently, the present SWS recovery in the recent decade may be only expected to last for a short amount of time before winds start decreasing again.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe2cdCMIP6forward stepwise regression algorithmlarge-scale ocean-atmosphere circulationsreversalnear-surface wind speed |
| spellingShingle | Jinlin Zha Cheng Shen Deming Zhao Jian Wu Wenxuan Fan Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China Environmental Research Letters CMIP6 forward stepwise regression algorithm large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations reversal near-surface wind speed |
| title | Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China |
| title_full | Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China |
| title_fullStr | Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China |
| title_short | Slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern China |
| title_sort | slowdown and reversal of terrestrial near surface wind speed and its future changes over eastern china |
| topic | CMIP6 forward stepwise regression algorithm large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations reversal near-surface wind speed |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe2cd |
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