Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioec...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000154 |
| _version_ | 1797203550111006720 |
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| author | Salihu Sabiu Musa Sania Qureshi Shi Zhao Abdullahi Yusuf Umar Tasiu Mustapha Daihai He |
| author_facet | Salihu Sabiu Musa Sania Qureshi Shi Zhao Abdullahi Yusuf Umar Tasiu Mustapha Daihai He |
| author_sort | Salihu Sabiu Musa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the world. One of the major reasons for China’s success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment (awareness) programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness programs. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Our model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases, to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June 2020. We find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly adopted. We presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be estimated. Further, our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and beyond. Finally, we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:21:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1b83690e597a4d519490c99e7e4ad2af |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:21:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b83690e597a4d519490c99e7e4ad2af2024-04-17T00:53:00ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016448460Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programsSalihu Sabiu Musa0Sania Qureshi1Shi Zhao2Abdullahi Yusuf3Umar Tasiu Mustapha4Daihai He5Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, NigeriaDepartment of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engr. & Tech., Jamshoro, PakistanJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Computer Engineering, Biruni University, Istanbul, Turkey; Department of Mathematics, Science Faculty, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria; Corresponding author. Department of Mathematics, Science Faculty, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria.Department of Mathematics, Science Faculty, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria; Department of Mathematics, Near East University TRNC, Mersin 10, TurkeyDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding author. Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the world. One of the major reasons for China’s success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment (awareness) programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness programs. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Our model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases, to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June 2020. We find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly adopted. We presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be estimated. Further, our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and beyond. Finally, we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000154COVID-19EpidemicMathematical modelingReproduction numberPublic awareness |
| spellingShingle | Salihu Sabiu Musa Sania Qureshi Shi Zhao Abdullahi Yusuf Umar Tasiu Mustapha Daihai He Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs Infectious Disease Modelling COVID-19 Epidemic Mathematical modeling Reproduction number Public awareness |
| title | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| title_full | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| title_short | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling of covid 19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs |
| topic | COVID-19 Epidemic Mathematical modeling Reproduction number Public awareness |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000154 |
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