As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards
Many pathogens rely on the mobility of their hosts for dispersal. In order to understand and predict how a disease can rapidly sweep across entire continents, illuminating the contributions of host movements to disease spread is pivotal. While elegant proposals have been made to elucidate the spread...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2018-12-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2018.00208/full |
| _version_ | 1818119217936859136 |
|---|---|
| author | Mariëlle L. van Toor Alexis Avril Guohui Wu Scott H. Holan Jonas Waldenström |
| author_facet | Mariëlle L. van Toor Alexis Avril Guohui Wu Scott H. Holan Jonas Waldenström |
| author_sort | Mariëlle L. van Toor |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many pathogens rely on the mobility of their hosts for dispersal. In order to understand and predict how a disease can rapidly sweep across entire continents, illuminating the contributions of host movements to disease spread is pivotal. While elegant proposals have been made to elucidate the spread of human infectious diseases, the direct observation of long-distance dispersal events of animal pathogens is challenging. Pathogens like avian influenza A viruses, causing only short disease in their animal hosts, have proven exceptionally hard to study. Here, we integrate comprehensive data on population and disease dynamics for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses in one of their main hosts, the mallard, with a novel movement model trained from empirical, high-resolution tracks of mallard migrations. This allowed us to simulate individual mallard migrations from a key stopover site in the Baltic Sea for the entire population and link these movements to infection simulations. Using this novel approach, we were able to estimate the dispersal of low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses by migrating mallards throughout several autumn migratory seasons and predicted areas that are at risk of importing these viruses. We found that mallards are competent vectors and on average dispersed viruses over distances of 160 km in just 3 h. Surprisingly, our simulations suggest that such dispersal events are rare even throughout the entire autumn migratory season. Our approach directly combines simulated population-level movements with local infection dynamics and offers a potential converging point for movement and disease ecology. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:06:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1b881a66eddf47318fc71338e90a9e85 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:06:42Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b881a66eddf47318fc71338e90a9e852022-12-22T01:20:01ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2018-12-01610.3389/fevo.2018.00208394353As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating MallardsMariëlle L. van Toor0Alexis Avril1Guohui Wu2Scott H. Holan3Jonas Waldenström4Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, SwedenCentre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, SwedenSAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, United StatesDepartment of Statistics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, United StatesCentre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, SwedenMany pathogens rely on the mobility of their hosts for dispersal. In order to understand and predict how a disease can rapidly sweep across entire continents, illuminating the contributions of host movements to disease spread is pivotal. While elegant proposals have been made to elucidate the spread of human infectious diseases, the direct observation of long-distance dispersal events of animal pathogens is challenging. Pathogens like avian influenza A viruses, causing only short disease in their animal hosts, have proven exceptionally hard to study. Here, we integrate comprehensive data on population and disease dynamics for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses in one of their main hosts, the mallard, with a novel movement model trained from empirical, high-resolution tracks of mallard migrations. This allowed us to simulate individual mallard migrations from a key stopover site in the Baltic Sea for the entire population and link these movements to infection simulations. Using this novel approach, we were able to estimate the dispersal of low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses by migrating mallards throughout several autumn migratory seasons and predicted areas that are at risk of importing these viruses. We found that mallards are competent vectors and on average dispersed viruses over distances of 160 km in just 3 h. Surprisingly, our simulations suggest that such dispersal events are rare even throughout the entire autumn migratory season. Our approach directly combines simulated population-level movements with local infection dynamics and offers a potential converging point for movement and disease ecology.https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2018.00208/fullavian influenza viruslow pathogenicmigrationOttenbypopulation-levelsimulation |
| spellingShingle | Mariëlle L. van Toor Alexis Avril Guohui Wu Scott H. Holan Jonas Waldenström As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution avian influenza virus low pathogenic migration Ottenby population-level simulation |
| title | As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards |
| title_full | As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards |
| title_fullStr | As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards |
| title_full_unstemmed | As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards |
| title_short | As the Duck Flies—Estimating the Dispersal of Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses by Migrating Mallards |
| title_sort | as the duck flies estimating the dispersal of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses by migrating mallards |
| topic | avian influenza virus low pathogenic migration Ottenby population-level simulation |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2018.00208/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariellelvantoor astheduckfliesestimatingthedispersaloflowpathogenicavianinfluenzavirusesbymigratingmallards AT alexisavril astheduckfliesestimatingthedispersaloflowpathogenicavianinfluenzavirusesbymigratingmallards AT guohuiwu astheduckfliesestimatingthedispersaloflowpathogenicavianinfluenzavirusesbymigratingmallards AT scotthholan astheduckfliesestimatingthedispersaloflowpathogenicavianinfluenzavirusesbymigratingmallards AT jonaswaldenstrom astheduckfliesestimatingthedispersaloflowpathogenicavianinfluenzavirusesbymigratingmallards |