A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model
Forecasts of tropical cyclones have seen rapid improvements in recent years as expanding computational capacity permits more runs of finer resolution meteorological models with increasing representation of physical processes. However, the utilization of a hydrodynamic component in these models is of...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology X |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915519300239 |
| _version_ | 1819237328676192256 |
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| author | Oliver E.J. Wing Christopher C. Sampson Paul D. Bates Niall Quinn Andrew M. Smith Jeffrey C. Neal |
| author_facet | Oliver E.J. Wing Christopher C. Sampson Paul D. Bates Niall Quinn Andrew M. Smith Jeffrey C. Neal |
| author_sort | Oliver E.J. Wing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forecasts of tropical cyclones have seen rapid improvements in recent years as expanding computational capacity permits more runs of finer resolution meteorological models with increasing representation of physical processes. However, the utilization of a hydrodynamic component in these models is often neglected, meaning flood forecasts typically output point water levels that give little indication of a projected inundation extent on the ground. Here, we append this critical component to the forecast cascade by coupling Fathom-US, a continental-scale hydraulic model which employs the LISFLOOD-FP numerical scheme, to forecasts of streamflow, rainfall and coastal surge height from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Medium-term (2–15 days) flood inundation forecasts, as well as hindcasts driven by real-time observations, were executed for Hurricane Harvey by rapidly simulating pluvial and coastal flood hazard and extracting fluvial flood maps from an existing US-wide simulation library. The resultant ~30 m resolution depth grids were then validated against post-event observations collated by the US Geological Survey. Across the disaster zone, the hindcast (forecast) model captured, on average, 78% (75%) of the benchmark flood extent, obtained a Critical Success Index of 0.66 (0.57) and deviated from observed high water marks by ~1 m (~1.2 m). When compared to a simpler GIS-based approach, the hydraulic model exhibited much higher skill in replicating observations. This study shows that fully hydrodynamic approaches can be practicably employed in large-scale forecast frameworks at high resolution to produce skillful projections of inundation extent without significantly affecting the forecast lead time. Keywords: Flooding, Hydrodynamic modeling, Flood forecasting, Hurricane Harvey, Large-scale modeling, Validation |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T13:18:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1b9077b6754d4e68af5d30ade24530fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2589-9155 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T13:18:35Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology X |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b9077b6754d4e68af5d30ade24530fa2022-12-21T17:45:31ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology X2589-91552019-07-014A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic modelOliver E.J. Wing0Christopher C. Sampson1Paul D. Bates2Niall Quinn3Andrew M. Smith4Jeffrey C. Neal5School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK; Fathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UK; Corresponding author at: School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.Fathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK; Fathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UKFathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UKFathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK; Fathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Temple Meads, Bristol BS1 6QH, UKForecasts of tropical cyclones have seen rapid improvements in recent years as expanding computational capacity permits more runs of finer resolution meteorological models with increasing representation of physical processes. However, the utilization of a hydrodynamic component in these models is often neglected, meaning flood forecasts typically output point water levels that give little indication of a projected inundation extent on the ground. Here, we append this critical component to the forecast cascade by coupling Fathom-US, a continental-scale hydraulic model which employs the LISFLOOD-FP numerical scheme, to forecasts of streamflow, rainfall and coastal surge height from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Medium-term (2–15 days) flood inundation forecasts, as well as hindcasts driven by real-time observations, were executed for Hurricane Harvey by rapidly simulating pluvial and coastal flood hazard and extracting fluvial flood maps from an existing US-wide simulation library. The resultant ~30 m resolution depth grids were then validated against post-event observations collated by the US Geological Survey. Across the disaster zone, the hindcast (forecast) model captured, on average, 78% (75%) of the benchmark flood extent, obtained a Critical Success Index of 0.66 (0.57) and deviated from observed high water marks by ~1 m (~1.2 m). When compared to a simpler GIS-based approach, the hydraulic model exhibited much higher skill in replicating observations. This study shows that fully hydrodynamic approaches can be practicably employed in large-scale forecast frameworks at high resolution to produce skillful projections of inundation extent without significantly affecting the forecast lead time. Keywords: Flooding, Hydrodynamic modeling, Flood forecasting, Hurricane Harvey, Large-scale modeling, Validationhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915519300239 |
| spellingShingle | Oliver E.J. Wing Christopher C. Sampson Paul D. Bates Niall Quinn Andrew M. Smith Jeffrey C. Neal A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model Journal of Hydrology X |
| title | A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model |
| title_full | A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model |
| title_fullStr | A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model |
| title_full_unstemmed | A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model |
| title_short | A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model |
| title_sort | flood inundation forecast of hurricane harvey using a continental scale 2d hydrodynamic model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915519300239 |
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