Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011–2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagne...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018017 |
| _version_ | 1819169232404873216 |
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| author | Podladchikova Tatiana Petrukovich Anatoly Yermolaev Yuri |
| author_facet | Podladchikova Tatiana Petrukovich Anatoly Yermolaev Yuri |
| author_sort | Podladchikova Tatiana |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011–2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T19:16:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1bc8f7d5cdee4d63b5c2448a6d41ab4b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2115-7251 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T19:16:14Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-1bc8f7d5cdee4d63b5c2448a6d41ab4b2022-12-21T18:15:30ZengEDP SciencesJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate2115-72512018-01-018A2210.1051/swsc/2018017swsc170027Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years onlinePodladchikova TatianaPetrukovich AnatolyYermolaev YuriForecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011–2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018017Solar windmagnetic fieldstormforecastingvalidation |
| spellingShingle | Podladchikova Tatiana Petrukovich Anatoly Yermolaev Yuri Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate Solar wind magnetic field storm forecasting validation |
| title | Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online |
| title_full | Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online |
| title_fullStr | Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online |
| title_short | Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online |
| title_sort | geomagnetic storm forecasting service stormfocus 5 years online |
| topic | Solar wind magnetic field storm forecasting validation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018017 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT podladchikovatatiana geomagneticstormforecastingservicestormfocus5yearsonline AT petrukovichanatoly geomagneticstormforecastingservicestormfocus5yearsonline AT yermolaevyuri geomagneticstormforecastingservicestormfocus5yearsonline |