Predicting mortality in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA): development of a four-year index and comparison with international measures
Abstract Objectives We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2022-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Geriatrics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-022-03196-z |
| Summary: | Abstract Objectives We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including additional predictors (self-report and healthcare utilization) and compared its performance to our replication model. Methods Eight thousand one hundred seventy-four participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were split for development (n = 4,121) and validation (n = 4,053). Six baseline predictor categories were examined (67 variables total): demographics; cardiovascular-related illness; non-cardiovascular illness; health and lifestyle variables; functional variables; self-report (wellbeing and social connectedness) and healthcare utilization. We identified variables independently associated with four-year mortality in the development cohort and attached these variables a weight according to strength of association. We summed the weights to calculate a single index score for each participant and evaluated predicted accuracy in the validation cohort. Results Our final 14-predictor (extended) model assigned risk points for: male (1pt); age (65–69: 2pts; 70–74: 4 pts; 75–79: 4pts; 80–84: 6pts; 85 + : 7pts); heart attack (1pt); cancer (3pts); smoked past age 30 (2pts); difficulty walking 100 m (2pts); difficulty using the toilet (3pts); difficulty lifting 10lbs (1pts); poor self-reported health (1pt); and hospital admission in previous year (1pt). Index discrimination was strong (ROC area = 0.78). Discussion Our index is predictive of four-year mortality in community-dwelling older Irish adults. Comparisons with the international indices show that our 12-predictor (replication) model performed well and suggests that generalisability is high. Our 14-predictor (extended) model showed modest improvements compared to the 12-predictor model. |
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| ISSN: | 1471-2318 |