Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins
Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2245 |
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| author | Karinne Deusdará-Leal Guilherme Samprogna Mohor Luz Adriana Cuartas Marcelo E. Seluchi Jose A. Marengo Rong Zhang Elisangela Broedel Diogo de Jesus Amore Regina C. S. Alvalá Ana Paula M. A. Cunha José A. C. Gonçalves |
| author_facet | Karinne Deusdará-Leal Guilherme Samprogna Mohor Luz Adriana Cuartas Marcelo E. Seluchi Jose A. Marengo Rong Zhang Elisangela Broedel Diogo de Jesus Amore Regina C. S. Alvalá Ana Paula M. A. Cunha José A. C. Gonçalves |
| author_sort | Karinne Deusdará-Leal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21–2.19% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45% to 9.67%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83–4.75% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced 3.47–28.3% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:38:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1c81e1b050f44ad0b3e4c8de1fff7e69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:38:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-1c81e1b050f44ad0b3e4c8de1fff7e692023-12-03T12:26:39ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-07-011414224510.3390/w14142245Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil BasinsKarinne Deusdará-Leal0Guilherme Samprogna Mohor1Luz Adriana Cuartas2Marcelo E. Seluchi3Jose A. Marengo4Rong Zhang5Elisangela Broedel6Diogo de Jesus Amore7Regina C. S. Alvalá8Ana Paula M. A. Cunha9José A. C. Gonçalves10Institute of Applied and Pure Sciences, Federal University of Itajubá(UNIFEI), Itabira 35903-087, BrazilInstitute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute (NHRI), Nanjing 210029, ChinaNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, BrazilInstitute of Applied and Pure Sciences, Federal University of Itajubá(UNIFEI), Itabira 35903-087, BrazilTrends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21–2.19% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45% to 9.67%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83–4.75% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced 3.47–28.3% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2245runoffprecipitationpotential evapotranspirationPettitt testsensitivity |
| spellingShingle | Karinne Deusdará-Leal Guilherme Samprogna Mohor Luz Adriana Cuartas Marcelo E. Seluchi Jose A. Marengo Rong Zhang Elisangela Broedel Diogo de Jesus Amore Regina C. S. Alvalá Ana Paula M. A. Cunha José A. C. Gonçalves Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins Water runoff precipitation potential evapotranspiration Pettitt test sensitivity |
| title | Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins |
| title_full | Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins |
| title_fullStr | Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins |
| title_short | Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins |
| title_sort | trends and climate elasticity of streamflow in south eastern brazil basins |
| topic | runoff precipitation potential evapotranspiration Pettitt test sensitivity |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/14/2245 |
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