Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe
High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone pro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2175/2018/acp-18-2175-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818142822549684224 |
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| author | E. Oikonomakis S. Aksoyoglu G. Ciarelli U. Baltensperger A. S. H. Prévôt |
| author_facet | E. Oikonomakis S. Aksoyoglu G. Ciarelli U. Baltensperger A. S. H. Prévôt |
| author_sort | E. Oikonomakis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | High surface ozone concentrations,
which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a
great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used
by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies.
However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in
many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the
modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the
ozone–temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its
sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air
quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions
(CAMx). The results show that the model significantly
underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10–20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by
5–15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations
for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone–temperature
regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations.
To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested:
(i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic
and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) emissions
by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and
(iv) increased traffic-only NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions by a factor of 4. For
southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling
NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the
underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant
degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The
model performance for ozone–temperature correlation is also better when
NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third
scenario (where both NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a
better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>
emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all
NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the
uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high
uncertainties in NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions might originate mainly from the
road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology
was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature
by 4 °C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind
speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface
ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone
values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the
third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone
is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially
traffic NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be
responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing
ratios and ozone production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T11:21:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1c8a02540a054d18a9a8458e071fc73a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T11:21:53Z |
| publishDate | 2018-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-1c8a02540a054d18a9a8458e071fc73a2022-12-22T01:09:08ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242018-02-01182175219810.5194/acp-18-2175-2018Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in EuropeE. Oikonomakis0S. Aksoyoglu1G. Ciarelli2U. Baltensperger3A. S. H. Prévôt4Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, SwitzerlandLaboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, SwitzerlandLaboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA), UMR CNRS 7583, Université Paris Est Créteil et Université Paris Diderot, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Créteil, FranceLaboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, SwitzerlandLaboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, SwitzerlandHigh surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone–temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10–20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5–15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone–temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased traffic-only NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone–temperature correlation is also better when NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 °C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios and ozone production.https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2175/2018/acp-18-2175-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Oikonomakis S. Aksoyoglu G. Ciarelli U. Baltensperger A. S. H. Prévôt Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe |
| title_full | Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe |
| title_short | Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe |
| title_sort | low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions especially no sub i x i sub in europe |
| url | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2175/2018/acp-18-2175-2018.pdf |
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