Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings
As a crucially-needed adaptation to climate change, the United Nations plans to expand Early Warning Systems (EWS) for extreme weather to cover everyone on Earth. Given the growing interest in this climate change adaptation solution, we assess how well weather early warnings perform for extreme even...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000871 |
| _version_ | 1797996749530333184 |
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| author | Erin Coughlan de Perez Laura Harrison Kristoffer Berse Evan Easton-Calabria Joalane Marunye Makoala Marake Sonia Binte Murshed Shampa Erlich-Honest Zauisomue |
| author_facet | Erin Coughlan de Perez Laura Harrison Kristoffer Berse Evan Easton-Calabria Joalane Marunye Makoala Marake Sonia Binte Murshed Shampa Erlich-Honest Zauisomue |
| author_sort | Erin Coughlan de Perez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As a crucially-needed adaptation to climate change, the United Nations plans to expand Early Warning Systems (EWS) for extreme weather to cover everyone on Earth. Given the growing interest in this climate change adaptation solution, we assess how well weather early warnings perform for extreme events in different parts of the world. First, we carry out a forecast verification for weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for 95th percentile extreme heat and extreme precipitation globally at 0.5° resolution, with three days of lead time. We present the results alongside similar verification results from ECMWF forecasts and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast, to identify regions of the world with consistent forecast skill. We then overlay the skill of these short-term weather forecasts on top of climate change projections for the increasing frequency of the extreme events themselves. Based on these results, we offer policy implications for EWS investments in different regions. We find that in much of the tropics, weather forecasts have relatively poor skill in forecasting extreme temperature and precipitation events, calling for further investments in predictability. In the extra-tropics, most extreme heat and extreme precipitation events can be correctly forecasted, with better results for multi-day events and shorter lead-times. While there is room to improve predictability, end-to-end investments in EWS in these regions can focus on the use of existing skillful forecasts. Finally, most of the world's land area is projected to see an increase in the magnitude of extreme heat and precipitation events with climate change, and EWS investments in these regions should prepare for unprecedented extremes and changing vulnerabilities. These results provide a foundation for localized research on EWS in different parts of the world as well as evidence for policy and donors on how best to invest in EWS in different regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:22:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1c9c60354d64423cae17604b5a884686 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:22:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-1c9c60354d64423cae17604b5a8846862022-12-22T04:29:43ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472022-12-0138100508Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warningsErin Coughlan de Perez0Laura Harrison1Kristoffer Berse2Evan Easton-Calabria3Joalane Marunye4Makoala Marake5Sonia Binte Murshed6 Shampa7Erlich-Honest Zauisomue8Feinstein International Center, Friedman School for Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, USA; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the Netherlands; Corresponding author. 150 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA, 02111, USA.Climate Hazards Center (CHC), University of California Santa Barbara, USAUniversity of the Philippines Resilience Institute, Philippines; University of the Philippines National College of Public Administration and Governance, PhilippinesFeinstein International Center, Friedman School for Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, USADepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, National University of Lesotho, LesothoDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, National University of Lesotho, LesothoInstitute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), BangladeshInstitute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), BangladeshMultidisciplinary Research (MR), University of Namibia (UNAM), NamibiaAs a crucially-needed adaptation to climate change, the United Nations plans to expand Early Warning Systems (EWS) for extreme weather to cover everyone on Earth. Given the growing interest in this climate change adaptation solution, we assess how well weather early warnings perform for extreme events in different parts of the world. First, we carry out a forecast verification for weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for 95th percentile extreme heat and extreme precipitation globally at 0.5° resolution, with three days of lead time. We present the results alongside similar verification results from ECMWF forecasts and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast, to identify regions of the world with consistent forecast skill. We then overlay the skill of these short-term weather forecasts on top of climate change projections for the increasing frequency of the extreme events themselves. Based on these results, we offer policy implications for EWS investments in different regions. We find that in much of the tropics, weather forecasts have relatively poor skill in forecasting extreme temperature and precipitation events, calling for further investments in predictability. In the extra-tropics, most extreme heat and extreme precipitation events can be correctly forecasted, with better results for multi-day events and shorter lead-times. While there is room to improve predictability, end-to-end investments in EWS in these regions can focus on the use of existing skillful forecasts. Finally, most of the world's land area is projected to see an increase in the magnitude of extreme heat and precipitation events with climate change, and EWS investments in these regions should prepare for unprecedented extremes and changing vulnerabilities. These results provide a foundation for localized research on EWS in different parts of the world as well as evidence for policy and donors on how best to invest in EWS in different regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000871Early warningClimate change adaptationDisastersForecast verificationHeatwavesPrecipitation |
| spellingShingle | Erin Coughlan de Perez Laura Harrison Kristoffer Berse Evan Easton-Calabria Joalane Marunye Makoala Marake Sonia Binte Murshed Shampa Erlich-Honest Zauisomue Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings Weather and Climate Extremes Early warning Climate change adaptation Disasters Forecast verification Heatwaves Precipitation |
| title | Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings |
| title_full | Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings |
| title_fullStr | Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings |
| title_short | Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings |
| title_sort | adapting to climate change through anticipatory action the potential use of weather based early warnings |
| topic | Early warning Climate change adaptation Disasters Forecast verification Heatwaves Precipitation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000871 |
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