A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects
In reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Society for Risk Analysis - China
2020-07-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125941835/view |
| _version_ | 1811323738103218176 |
|---|---|
| author | Mu Zhang Xiao-nan Huang Chang-bing Yang |
| author_facet | Mu Zhang Xiao-nan Huang Chang-bing Yang |
| author_sort | Mu Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer goods with holiday effects. First, a dummy variable model is constructed to test the holiday effects in consumer goods market. Second, using the seasonal decomposition, the seasonal factor is separated from the original series, and the seasonally adjusted series is then obtained. Through the ARIMA model, a trend forecast to the seasonally adjusted series is further carried out. Finally, according to the multiplicative model, refilling the trend forecast value with the seasonal factor, thus, the final sales forecast results of the consumer goods with holiday effects can be obtained. Taking the cigarettes sales in G City, Guizhou, China as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of this new model is verified by the example analysis results. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T14:00:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1cb40b5a1a5a4fe98352f90a1b59fd94 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2210-8505 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T14:00:37Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Society for Risk Analysis - China |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) |
| spelling | doaj.art-1cb40b5a1a5a4fe98352f90a1b59fd942022-12-22T02:44:03ZengSociety for Risk Analysis - ChinaJournal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR)2210-85052020-07-0110210.2991/jracr.k.200709.001A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday EffectsMu ZhangXiao-nan HuangChang-bing YangIn reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer goods with holiday effects. First, a dummy variable model is constructed to test the holiday effects in consumer goods market. Second, using the seasonal decomposition, the seasonal factor is separated from the original series, and the seasonally adjusted series is then obtained. Through the ARIMA model, a trend forecast to the seasonally adjusted series is further carried out. Finally, according to the multiplicative model, refilling the trend forecast value with the seasonal factor, thus, the final sales forecast results of the consumer goods with holiday effects can be obtained. Taking the cigarettes sales in G City, Guizhou, China as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of this new model is verified by the example analysis results.https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125941835/viewConsumer goodssales forecastingholiday effectsseasonal decompositionARIMA modelseasonal factor |
| spellingShingle | Mu Zhang Xiao-nan Huang Chang-bing Yang A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) Consumer goods sales forecasting holiday effects seasonal decomposition ARIMA model seasonal factor |
| title | A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects |
| title_full | A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects |
| title_fullStr | A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects |
| title_short | A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects |
| title_sort | sales forecasting model for the consumer goods with holiday effects |
| topic | Consumer goods sales forecasting holiday effects seasonal decomposition ARIMA model seasonal factor |
| url | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125941835/view |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT muzhang asalesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects AT xiaonanhuang asalesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects AT changbingyang asalesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects AT muzhang salesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects AT xiaonanhuang salesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects AT changbingyang salesforecastingmodelfortheconsumergoodswithholidayeffects |