Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts
<p>Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/433/2021/wcd-2-433-2021.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819125445039226880 |
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| author | J. R. Albers J. R. Albers A. H. Butler M. L. Breeden A. O. Langford G. N. Kiladis |
| author_facet | J. R. Albers J. R. Albers A. H. Butler M. L. Breeden A. O. Langford G. N. Kiladis |
| author_sort | J. R. Albers |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict
stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical
moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American
region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and
TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide,
Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are
utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be
predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large
anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the
west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best
potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT
to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United
States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely only
in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and
TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and
anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated
compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous
transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worse
as spring progresses into summer.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T07:40:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1cb9f8682e924f28bf1a8ace59f9b66e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2698-4016 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T07:40:15Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-1cb9f8682e924f28bf1a8ace59f9b66e2022-12-21T18:33:45ZengCopernicus PublicationsWeather and Climate Dynamics2698-40162021-05-01243345210.5194/wcd-2-433-2021Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecastsJ. R. Albers0J. R. Albers1A. H. Butler2M. L. Breeden3A. O. Langford4G. N. Kiladis5Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USANOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USANOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USANOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USANOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USANOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA<p>Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worse as spring progresses into summer.</p>https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/433/2021/wcd-2-433-2021.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. R. Albers J. R. Albers A. H. Butler M. L. Breeden A. O. Langford G. N. Kiladis Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| title | Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts |
| title_full | Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts |
| title_short | Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts |
| title_sort | subseasonal prediction of springtime pacific north american transport using upper level wind forecasts |
| url | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/433/2021/wcd-2-433-2021.pdf |
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