The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams
Climate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing clim...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/3/596 |
| _version_ | 1811231323235287040 |
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| author | Annie Visser Lindsay Beevers Sandhya Patidar |
| author_facet | Annie Visser Lindsay Beevers Sandhya Patidar |
| author_sort | Annie Visser |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change on hydroecological response for the River Nar, south-east England. To this end, we apply a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework, with the UK probabilistic climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) weather generator serving as input (CMIP3 A1B high emissions scenario, 2021 to the end-of-century). The results indicate a minimal change in the long-term mean hydroecological response over this period. In terms of interannual variability, the median hydroecological response is subject to increased uncertainty, whilst lower probability extremes are <i>virtually certain</i> to become more homogeneous (assuming a high emissions scenario). A functional matrix, relating species-level macroinvertebrate functional flow preferences to functional food groups reveals that, on the baseline, under extreme conditions, key groups are underrepresented. To date, despite this limited range, the River Nar has been able to adapt to extreme events due to interannual variation. In the future, this variation is greatly reduced, raising real concerns over the resilience of the river ecosystem, and chalk ecosystems more generally, under climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:43:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1cc48769f96c4f348a4df502b94e44a4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:43:14Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-1cc48769f96c4f348a4df502b94e44a42022-12-22T03:36:31ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412019-03-0111359610.3390/w11030596w11030596The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk StreamsAnnie Visser0Lindsay Beevers1Sandhya Patidar2Institute for Infrastructure and Environment, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UKInstitute for Infrastructure and Environment, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UKInstitute for Infrastructure and Environment, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UKClimate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change on hydroecological response for the River Nar, south-east England. To this end, we apply a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework, with the UK probabilistic climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) weather generator serving as input (CMIP3 A1B high emissions scenario, 2021 to the end-of-century). The results indicate a minimal change in the long-term mean hydroecological response over this period. In terms of interannual variability, the median hydroecological response is subject to increased uncertainty, whilst lower probability extremes are <i>virtually certain</i> to become more homogeneous (assuming a high emissions scenario). A functional matrix, relating species-level macroinvertebrate functional flow preferences to functional food groups reveals that, on the baseline, under extreme conditions, key groups are underrepresented. To date, despite this limited range, the River Nar has been able to adapt to extreme events due to interannual variation. In the future, this variation is greatly reduced, raising real concerns over the resilience of the river ecosystem, and chalk ecosystems more generally, under climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/3/596climate change impactecosystem functionalityfreshwater ecosystemsUKCP09hydroecological impactriver health |
| spellingShingle | Annie Visser Lindsay Beevers Sandhya Patidar The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams Water climate change impact ecosystem functionality freshwater ecosystems UKCP09 hydroecological impact river health |
| title | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams |
| title_full | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams |
| title_short | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on hydroecological response in chalk streams |
| topic | climate change impact ecosystem functionality freshwater ecosystems UKCP09 hydroecological impact river health |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/3/596 |
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