Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication

Mathematical modeling represents a useful instrument to describe epidemic spread and to propose useful control actions, such as vaccination scheduling, quarantine, informative campaign, and therapy, especially in the realistic hypothesis of resources limitations. Moreover, the same representation co...

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Main Authors: Paolo Di Giamberardino, Daniela Iacoviello
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2019-06-01
Series:Information
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/10/6/213
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author Paolo Di Giamberardino
Daniela Iacoviello
author_facet Paolo Di Giamberardino
Daniela Iacoviello
author_sort Paolo Di Giamberardino
collection DOAJ
description Mathematical modeling represents a useful instrument to describe epidemic spread and to propose useful control actions, such as vaccination scheduling, quarantine, informative campaign, and therapy, especially in the realistic hypothesis of resources limitations. Moreover, the same representation could efficiently describe different epidemic scenarios, involving, for example, computer viruses spreading in the network. In this paper, a new model describing an infectious disease and a possible complication is proposed; after deep-model analysis discussing the role of the reproduction number, an optimal control problem is formulated and solved to reduce the number of dead patients, minimizing the control effort. The results show the reasonability of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the control action, aiming at an efficient resource allocation; the model also describes the different reactions of a population with respect to an epidemic disease depending on the economic and social original conditions. The optimal control theory applied to the proposed new epidemic model provides a sensible reduction in the number of dead patients, also suggesting the suitable scheduling of the vaccination control. Future work will be devoted to the identification of the model parameters referring to specific epidemic disease and complications, also taking into account the geographic and social scenario.
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spelling doaj.art-1d33cb5235dd4fcb89ee453678e2c4762022-12-22T01:59:07ZengMDPI AGInformation2078-24892019-06-0110621310.3390/info10060213info10060213Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its ComplicationPaolo Di Giamberardino0Daniela Iacoviello1Department of Computer Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, Sapienza University of Rome, via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Computer Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, Sapienza University of Rome, via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome, ItalyMathematical modeling represents a useful instrument to describe epidemic spread and to propose useful control actions, such as vaccination scheduling, quarantine, informative campaign, and therapy, especially in the realistic hypothesis of resources limitations. Moreover, the same representation could efficiently describe different epidemic scenarios, involving, for example, computer viruses spreading in the network. In this paper, a new model describing an infectious disease and a possible complication is proposed; after deep-model analysis discussing the role of the reproduction number, an optimal control problem is formulated and solved to reduce the number of dead patients, minimizing the control effort. The results show the reasonability of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the control action, aiming at an efficient resource allocation; the model also describes the different reactions of a population with respect to an epidemic disease depending on the economic and social original conditions. The optimal control theory applied to the proposed new epidemic model provides a sensible reduction in the number of dead patients, also suggesting the suitable scheduling of the vaccination control. Future work will be devoted to the identification of the model parameters referring to specific epidemic disease and complications, also taking into account the geographic and social scenario.https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/10/6/213epidemic diseases modelingoptimal controlvaccination and therapyoptimal resource allocation
spellingShingle Paolo Di Giamberardino
Daniela Iacoviello
Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
Information
epidemic diseases modeling
optimal control
vaccination and therapy
optimal resource allocation
title Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
title_full Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
title_fullStr Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
title_full_unstemmed Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
title_short Optimal Resource Allocation to Reduce an Epidemic Spread and Its Complication
title_sort optimal resource allocation to reduce an epidemic spread and its complication
topic epidemic diseases modeling
optimal control
vaccination and therapy
optimal resource allocation
url https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/10/6/213
work_keys_str_mv AT paolodigiamberardino optimalresourceallocationtoreduceanepidemicspreadanditscomplication
AT danielaiacoviello optimalresourceallocationtoreduceanepidemicspreadanditscomplication