Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of ea...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Seismological Society of America
2022-08-01
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| Series: | The Seismic Record |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220020 |
| _version_ | 1797347464466923520 |
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| author | Yongsoo Park Gregory C. Beroza William L. Ellsworth |
| author_facet | Yongsoo Park Gregory C. Beroza William L. Ellsworth |
| author_sort | Yongsoo Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (Mw≥4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ∼5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:48:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1dabfd917b774d848c73b112b1f306e3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2694-4006 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:48:08Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Seismic Record |
| spelling | doaj.art-1dabfd917b774d848c73b112b1f306e32024-01-24T14:40:58ZengSeismological Society of AmericaThe Seismic Record2694-40062022-08-012319720610.1785/032022002022020Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and KansasYongsoo Park0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5466-8004Gregory C. Beroza1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8667-1838William L. Ellsworth2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8378-4979Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (Mw≥4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ∼5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220020 |
| spellingShingle | Yongsoo Park Gregory C. Beroza William L. Ellsworth Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas The Seismic Record |
| title | Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_full | Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_fullStr | Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_short | Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_sort | basement fault activation before larger earthquakes in oklahoma and kansas |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220020 |
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