Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia
This paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravsk´a Lesná, and Myjav...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Earth Science Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia
2018-09-01
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| Series: | Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.geo.sav.sk/cgg/article/view/184 |
| _version_ | 1819115165467017216 |
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| author | Silvia KOHNOVÁ Marianna VASILAKI Martin HANEL Ján SZOLGAY Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Athanasios LOUKAS Gabriel FÖLDES |
| author_facet | Silvia KOHNOVÁ Marianna VASILAKI Martin HANEL Ján SZOLGAY Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Athanasios LOUKAS Gabriel FÖLDES |
| author_sort | Silvia KOHNOVÁ |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravsk´a Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that 60-min shortterm events for most of the RCM simulations will either increase or remain constant. On the other hand, the depths and intensities of daily events are projected to increase significantly; in some cases they were found to be ten times larger. Trends in future events at the Hurbanovo station were found to be insignificant. In the other stations positive trends in future rainfall events prevail, except for daily rainfall at the Myjava station, which shows a negative trend. Using results from the selected simulations, the scaling exponents estimated are on average lower than the exponents of the data observed. On the other hand, due to the higher daily precipitation amounts in the future seen to all the scenarios, the downscaled values of short-term rainfall at all the stations analysed might be considerably higher in the future horizons, which could subsequently affect future design rainfall values for engineering designs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T04:56:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1daddfd0b8c04cecab91a7653b364aa7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1338-0540 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T04:56:51Z |
| publishDate | 2018-09-01 |
| publisher | Earth Science Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy |
| spelling | doaj.art-1daddfd0b8c04cecab91a7653b364aa72022-12-21T18:38:21ZengEarth Science Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, SlovakiaContributions to Geophysics and Geodesy1338-05402018-09-0148320723010.2478/congeo-2018-0009184Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in SlovakiaSilvia KOHNOVÁ0Marianna VASILAKI1Martin HANEL2Ján SZOLGAY3Kamila HLAVČOVÁ4Athanasios LOUKAS5Gabriel FÖLDES6Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil EngineeringDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, GreeceCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental ScienceSlovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil EngineeringSlovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil EngineeringDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, GreeceSlovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil EngineeringThis paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravsk´a Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that 60-min shortterm events for most of the RCM simulations will either increase or remain constant. On the other hand, the depths and intensities of daily events are projected to increase significantly; in some cases they were found to be ten times larger. Trends in future events at the Hurbanovo station were found to be insignificant. In the other stations positive trends in future rainfall events prevail, except for daily rainfall at the Myjava station, which shows a negative trend. Using results from the selected simulations, the scaling exponents estimated are on average lower than the exponents of the data observed. On the other hand, due to the higher daily precipitation amounts in the future seen to all the scenarios, the downscaled values of short-term rainfall at all the stations analysed might be considerably higher in the future horizons, which could subsequently affect future design rainfall values for engineering designs.https://journal.geo.sav.sk/cgg/article/view/184trend analysis, scaling exponents, short-term rainfall, rcm projections |
| spellingShingle | Silvia KOHNOVÁ Marianna VASILAKI Martin HANEL Ján SZOLGAY Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Athanasios LOUKAS Gabriel FÖLDES Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy trend analysis, scaling exponents, short-term rainfall, rcm projections |
| title | Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia |
| title_full | Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia |
| title_fullStr | Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia |
| title_short | Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia |
| title_sort | detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short term rainfall at selected stations in slovakia |
| topic | trend analysis, scaling exponents, short-term rainfall, rcm projections |
| url | https://journal.geo.sav.sk/cgg/article/view/184 |
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