A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2011-12-01
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| Series: | Malaria Journal |
| Online Access: | http://www.malariajournal.com/content/10/1/378 |
| _version_ | 1818157229997555712 |
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| author | Gething Peter W Patil Anand P Smith David L Guerra Carlos A Elyazar Iqbal RF Johnston Geoffrey L Tatem Andrew J Hay Simon I |
| author_facet | Gething Peter W Patil Anand P Smith David L Guerra Carlos A Elyazar Iqbal RF Johnston Geoffrey L Tatem Andrew J Hay Simon I |
| author_sort | Gething Peter W |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for <it>P. falciparum </it>that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (<it>Pf</it>EIR) and the basic reproductive number (<it>PfR</it>).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of <it>P. falciparum </it>transmission in 2010 and 22,212 <it>P</it>. <it>falciparum </it>parasite rate (<it>Pf</it>PR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link <it>Pf</it>PR to <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR </it>and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the <it>Pf</it>PR map to create new global predictions of <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR</it>. All output maps included measured uncertainty.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable <it>P</it>. <it>falciparum </it>malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median <it>Pf</it>EIR of less than one and a median <it>PfR</it><sub>c </sub>of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR </it>was substantial in regions of intense transmission.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:10:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1db934c5d7f745809051e82ae993701d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-2875 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:10:53Z |
| publishDate | 2011-12-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | Malaria Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-1db934c5d7f745809051e82ae993701d2022-12-22T01:00:45ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752011-12-0110137810.1186/1475-2875-10-378A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010Gething Peter WPatil Anand PSmith David LGuerra Carlos AElyazar Iqbal RFJohnston Geoffrey LTatem Andrew JHay Simon I<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for <it>P. falciparum </it>that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (<it>Pf</it>EIR) and the basic reproductive number (<it>PfR</it>).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of <it>P. falciparum </it>transmission in 2010 and 22,212 <it>P</it>. <it>falciparum </it>parasite rate (<it>Pf</it>PR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link <it>Pf</it>PR to <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR </it>and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the <it>Pf</it>PR map to create new global predictions of <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR</it>. All output maps included measured uncertainty.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable <it>P</it>. <it>falciparum </it>malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median <it>Pf</it>EIR of less than one and a median <it>PfR</it><sub>c </sub>of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both <it>Pf</it>EIR and <it>PfR </it>was substantial in regions of intense transmission.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.</p>http://www.malariajournal.com/content/10/1/378 |
| spellingShingle | Gething Peter W Patil Anand P Smith David L Guerra Carlos A Elyazar Iqbal RF Johnston Geoffrey L Tatem Andrew J Hay Simon I A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 Malaria Journal |
| title | A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 |
| title_full | A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 |
| title_fullStr | A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 |
| title_full_unstemmed | A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 |
| title_short | A new world malaria map: <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>endemicity in 2010 |
| title_sort | new world malaria map it plasmodium falciparum it endemicity in 2010 |
| url | http://www.malariajournal.com/content/10/1/378 |
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