Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis
BackgroundMale breast cancer (MBC) is rare, which has restricted prospective research among MBC patients. With effective treatments, the prognosis of MBC patients has improved and developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) has become a life-threatening event for MBC survivors. However, few studies...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1076997/full |
| _version_ | 1797843691189043200 |
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| author | Haowei Huang Zhuoran Li Zhisheng Huang Lang Huang Wei Liu Guolong Liu Guolong Liu Yuzhen Mo |
| author_facet | Haowei Huang Zhuoran Li Zhisheng Huang Lang Huang Wei Liu Guolong Liu Guolong Liu Yuzhen Mo |
| author_sort | Haowei Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundMale breast cancer (MBC) is rare, which has restricted prospective research among MBC patients. With effective treatments, the prognosis of MBC patients has improved and developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) has become a life-threatening event for MBC survivors. However, few studies have focused on the prognosis of MBC patients and looked into the SPM issue in MBC survivors.MethodWe reviewed MBC patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 from the latest Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Plus database. Competing risk models and nomograms were conducted for predicting the risk of cancer-specific death and SPM occurrence. C-indexes, calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were applied for validation.ResultA total of 1,843 MBC patients with complete information were finally enrolled and 60 (3.26%) had developed an SPM. Prostate cancer (40%) was the most common SPM. The median OS of all the enrolled patients was 102.41 months, while the median latency from the initial MBC diagnosis to the subsequent diagnosis of SPM was 67.2 months. The patients who suffered from an SPM shared a longer OS than those patients with only one MBC (p = 0.027). The patients were randomly divided into the development cohort and the validation cohort (at a ratio of 7:3). The Fine and Gray competing risk model was used to identify the risk factors. Two nomograms were constructed and validated to predict the 5-year, 8-year, and 10-year survival probability of MBC patients, both of which had good performance in the C-index, ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA curves, showing the ideal discrimination capability and predictive value clinically. Furthermore, we, for the first time, constructed a nomogram based on the competing risk model to predict the 5-year, 8-year, and 10-year probability of developing an SPM in MBC survivors, which also showed good discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness.ConclusionWe, for the first time, included treatment information and clinical parameters to construct a nomogram to predict not only the survival probability of MBC patients but also the probability of developing an SPM in MBC survivors, which were helpful in individual risk estimation, patient follow-up, and counseling in MBC patients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:11:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1df8ccaed8004bef9a7fe676d0c72142 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:11:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-1df8ccaed8004bef9a7fe676d0c721422023-04-20T05:57:45ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-04-011310.3389/fonc.2023.10769971076997Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysisHaowei Huang0Zhuoran Li1Zhisheng Huang2Lang Huang3Wei Liu4Guolong Liu5Guolong Liu6Yuzhen Mo7Department of Radiotherapy, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Radiology, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Rehabilitation, Guangzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of General Office, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Occupational Disease Prevention and Treatment, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Breast, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, Guangzhou First People’s Hospital, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Medical Oncology, Guangzhou First People’s Hospital, School of Medicine, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaDepartment of Radiotherapy, Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaBackgroundMale breast cancer (MBC) is rare, which has restricted prospective research among MBC patients. With effective treatments, the prognosis of MBC patients has improved and developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) has become a life-threatening event for MBC survivors. However, few studies have focused on the prognosis of MBC patients and looked into the SPM issue in MBC survivors.MethodWe reviewed MBC patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 from the latest Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Plus database. Competing risk models and nomograms were conducted for predicting the risk of cancer-specific death and SPM occurrence. C-indexes, calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were applied for validation.ResultA total of 1,843 MBC patients with complete information were finally enrolled and 60 (3.26%) had developed an SPM. Prostate cancer (40%) was the most common SPM. The median OS of all the enrolled patients was 102.41 months, while the median latency from the initial MBC diagnosis to the subsequent diagnosis of SPM was 67.2 months. The patients who suffered from an SPM shared a longer OS than those patients with only one MBC (p = 0.027). The patients were randomly divided into the development cohort and the validation cohort (at a ratio of 7:3). The Fine and Gray competing risk model was used to identify the risk factors. Two nomograms were constructed and validated to predict the 5-year, 8-year, and 10-year survival probability of MBC patients, both of which had good performance in the C-index, ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA curves, showing the ideal discrimination capability and predictive value clinically. Furthermore, we, for the first time, constructed a nomogram based on the competing risk model to predict the 5-year, 8-year, and 10-year probability of developing an SPM in MBC survivors, which also showed good discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness.ConclusionWe, for the first time, included treatment information and clinical parameters to construct a nomogram to predict not only the survival probability of MBC patients but also the probability of developing an SPM in MBC survivors, which were helpful in individual risk estimation, patient follow-up, and counseling in MBC patients.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1076997/fullmale breast cancersecond primary malignancyprognosissurvival probabilitynomogram |
| spellingShingle | Haowei Huang Zhuoran Li Zhisheng Huang Lang Huang Wei Liu Guolong Liu Guolong Liu Yuzhen Mo Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis Frontiers in Oncology male breast cancer second primary malignancy prognosis survival probability nomogram |
| title | Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis |
| title_full | Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis |
| title_short | Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis |
| title_sort | development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients a population based analysis |
| topic | male breast cancer second primary malignancy prognosis survival probability nomogram |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1076997/full |
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