Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
<p>The resilience of river catchments and the vital socio-ecological services they provide are threatened by the cumulative impacts of future climatic and socio-economic change. Stakeholders who manage freshwaters require tools for increasing their understanding of catchment system resilience...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-06-01
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Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/2205/2023/hess-27-2205-2023.pdf |
Summary: | <p>The resilience of river catchments and the vital socio-ecological services
they provide are threatened by the cumulative impacts of future climatic and socio-economic change. Stakeholders who manage freshwaters
require tools for increasing their understanding of catchment system
resilience when making strategic decisions. However, unravelling causes,
effects and interactions in complex catchment systems is challenging,
typically leading to different system components being considered in
isolation.</p>
<p>In this research, we tested a five-stage participatory method for developing
a Bayesian network (BN) model to simulate the resilience of the Eden catchment in eastern
Scotland to future pressures in a single transdisciplinary holistic
framework. The five-stage participatory method involved co-developing a BN
model structure by conceptually mapping the catchment system and identifying
plausible climatic and socio-economic future scenarios to measure catchment
system resilience. Causal relationships between drivers of future change and
catchment system nodes were mapped to create the BN model structure.
Appropriate baseline data to define and parameterise nodes that represent
the catchment system were identified with stakeholders.</p>
<p>The BN model measured the impact of diverse future change scenarios to a
2050 time horizon. We applied continuous nodes within the hybrid
equation-based BN model to measure the uncertain impacts of both climatic
and socio-economic change. The BN model enabled interactions between future
change factors and implications for the state of five capitals (natural,
social, manufactured, financial and intellectual) in the system to be
considered, providing stakeholders with a holistic catchment-scale approach
to measure the resilience of multiple capitals and their associated
resources. We created a credible, salient and legitimate BN model tool for
understanding the cumulative impacts of both climatic and socio-economic
factors on catchment resilience based on stakeholder evaluation. BN model
outputs facilitated stakeholder recognition of future risks to their primary
sector of interest, alongside their interaction with other sectors and the
wider system. Participatory modelling methods improved the structure of the
BN through collaborative learning with stakeholders while providing
stakeholders with a strategic systems-thinking approach for considering
river basin catchment resilience</p> |
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ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |