Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a...

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Main Author: Jamaludin Suhaila
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-07-01
Series:Climate
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/7/118
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author Jamaludin Suhaila
author_facet Jamaludin Suhaila
author_sort Jamaludin Suhaila
collection DOAJ
description The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a main research interest. Statistical methods, including linear and nonlinear models, have intensively been used in modeling the ENSO index. However, these models are unable to capture sufficient information on ENSO index variability, particularly on its temporal aspects. Hence, this study adopted functional data analysis theory by representing a multivariate ENSO index (MEI) as functional data in climate applications. This study included the functional principal component, which is purposefully designed to find new functions that reveal the most important type of variation in the MEI curve. Simultaneously, graphical methods were also used to visualize functional data and capture outliers that may not have been apparent from the original data plot. The findings suggest that the outliers obtained from the functional plot are then related to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. In conclusion, the functional framework was found to be more flexible in representing the climate phenomenon as a whole.
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spelling doaj.art-1e304e3006c8491fba7afe7994047d582023-11-22T03:32:23ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542021-07-019711810.3390/cli9070118Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern OscillationJamaludin Suhaila0Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru 81310, MalaysiaThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a main research interest. Statistical methods, including linear and nonlinear models, have intensively been used in modeling the ENSO index. However, these models are unable to capture sufficient information on ENSO index variability, particularly on its temporal aspects. Hence, this study adopted functional data analysis theory by representing a multivariate ENSO index (MEI) as functional data in climate applications. This study included the functional principal component, which is purposefully designed to find new functions that reveal the most important type of variation in the MEI curve. Simultaneously, graphical methods were also used to visualize functional data and capture outliers that may not have been apparent from the original data plot. The findings suggest that the outliers obtained from the functional plot are then related to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. In conclusion, the functional framework was found to be more flexible in representing the climate phenomenon as a whole.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/7/118El NiñoLa NiñaENSOfunctional data analysisfunctional principal componentfunctional outlier
spellingShingle Jamaludin Suhaila
Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
Climate
El Niño
La Niña
ENSO
functional data analysis
functional principal component
functional outlier
title Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
title_full Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
title_fullStr Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
title_full_unstemmed Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
title_short Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
title_sort functional data visualization and outlier detection on the anomaly of el nino southern oscillation
topic El Niño
La Niña
ENSO
functional data analysis
functional principal component
functional outlier
url https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/7/118
work_keys_str_mv AT jamaludinsuhaila functionaldatavisualizationandoutlierdetectionontheanomalyofelninosouthernoscillation