Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX)
The ADRIMED (Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) project was dedicated to study the atmospheric composition during the summer 2013 in the European Mediterranean region. During its campaign experiment part, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model)...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2015-07-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/7897/2015/acp-15-7897-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819143381873328128 |
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| author | L. Menut G. Rea S. Mailler D. Khvorostyanov S. Turquety |
| author_facet | L. Menut G. Rea S. Mailler D. Khvorostyanov S. Turquety |
| author_sort | L. Menut |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ADRIMED (Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate
in the MEDiterranean region) project was dedicated to study the atmospheric composition during
the summer 2013 in the European Mediterranean region. During its campaign
experiment part, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and CHIMERE models were used in the forecast mode in
order to decide whether intensive observation periods should be triggered.
Each day, a simulation of 4 days was performed, corresponding to (<i>D</i>-1) to
(<i>D</i>+2) forecast leads. The goal of this study was to determine whether the
model forecast spread is lower or greater than the model biases compared to
observations. It is shown that the differences between observations and the
model are always higher than those between the forecasts. Among all forcing
types used in the chemistry-transport model, it is shown that the strong bias
and other related low forecast scores are mainly due to the forecast accuracy
of the wind speed, which is used both for the mineral dust emissions (a
threshold process) and for the long-range transport of aerosol: the surface
wind speed forecast spread can reach 50%, leading to mineral dust
emission forecast spread of up to 30%. These variations are responsible
for a moderate forecast spread of the surface PM<sub>10</sub> (a few percentage points) and
for a large spread (more than 50%) in the mineral dust concentration at
higher altitudes, leading to a mean AOD (aerosol optical depth) forecast spread of ±10%. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T12:25:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1e60e322fd544e4a8c29f9723f8a2074 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T12:25:21Z |
| publishDate | 2015-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-1e60e322fd544e4a8c29f9723f8a20742022-12-21T18:25:50ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242015-07-0115147897791110.5194/acp-15-7897-2015Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX)L. Menut0G. Rea1S. Mailler2D. Khvorostyanov3S. Turquety4Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS8539, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, FranceLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS8539, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, FranceLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS8539, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, FranceLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS8539, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, FranceLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS8539, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, FranceThe ADRIMED (Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) project was dedicated to study the atmospheric composition during the summer 2013 in the European Mediterranean region. During its campaign experiment part, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and CHIMERE models were used in the forecast mode in order to decide whether intensive observation periods should be triggered. Each day, a simulation of 4 days was performed, corresponding to (<i>D</i>-1) to (<i>D</i>+2) forecast leads. The goal of this study was to determine whether the model forecast spread is lower or greater than the model biases compared to observations. It is shown that the differences between observations and the model are always higher than those between the forecasts. Among all forcing types used in the chemistry-transport model, it is shown that the strong bias and other related low forecast scores are mainly due to the forecast accuracy of the wind speed, which is used both for the mineral dust emissions (a threshold process) and for the long-range transport of aerosol: the surface wind speed forecast spread can reach 50%, leading to mineral dust emission forecast spread of up to 30%. These variations are responsible for a moderate forecast spread of the surface PM<sub>10</sub> (a few percentage points) and for a large spread (more than 50%) in the mineral dust concentration at higher altitudes, leading to a mean AOD (aerosol optical depth) forecast spread of ±10%.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/7897/2015/acp-15-7897-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Menut G. Rea S. Mailler D. Khvorostyanov S. Turquety Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) |
| title_full | Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) |
| title_fullStr | Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) |
| title_short | Aerosol forecast over the Mediterranean area during July 2013 (ADRIMED/CHARMEX) |
| title_sort | aerosol forecast over the mediterranean area during july 2013 adrimed charmex |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/7897/2015/acp-15-7897-2015.pdf |
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