Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?
Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by <i>Culicoides</i> spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/4/892 |
| _version_ | 1797603188424048640 |
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| author | Dennis A. Navarro Mamani Heydi Ramos Huere Renzo Vera Buendia Miguel Rojas Wilfredo Arque Chunga Edgar Valdez Gutierrez Walter Vergara Abarca Hermelinda Rivera Gerónimo Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra |
| author_facet | Dennis A. Navarro Mamani Heydi Ramos Huere Renzo Vera Buendia Miguel Rojas Wilfredo Arque Chunga Edgar Valdez Gutierrez Walter Vergara Abarca Hermelinda Rivera Gerónimo Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra |
| author_sort | Dennis A. Navarro Mamani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by <i>Culicoides</i> spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and <i>Culicoides insignis</i> in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (<i>n</i> = 145) and <i>C. insignis</i> (<i>n</i> = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T04:26:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1e7d6ebdbfbb4612a9162329d9550a47 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T04:26:52Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-1e7d6ebdbfbb4612a9162329d9550a472023-11-17T21:45:15ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152023-03-0115489210.3390/v15040892Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?Dennis A. Navarro Mamani0Heydi Ramos Huere1Renzo Vera Buendia2Miguel Rojas3Wilfredo Arque Chunga4Edgar Valdez Gutierrez5Walter Vergara Abarca6Hermelinda Rivera Gerónimo7Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra8Laboratorio de Microbiología y Parasitología—Sección Virología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, PeruLaboratorio de Microbiología y Parasitología—Sección Virología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, PeruLaboratorio de Microbiología y Parasitología—Sección Virología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, PeruLaboratorio de Inmunología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, PeruLaboratorio de Referencia Nacional de Metaxenicas y Zoonosis Bacterianas, Centro Nacional de Salud Pública, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Lima 15001, PeruLaboratorio de Sanidad Animal “M.V. Atilio Pacheco Pacheco”, Escuela Profesional de Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco 08681, PeruLaboratorio de Sanidad Animal “M.V. Atilio Pacheco Pacheco”, Escuela Profesional de Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco 08681, PeruLaboratorio de Microbiología y Parasitología—Sección Virología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, PeruGrupo de Investigación Bioforense, Tecnológico de Antioquia Institución Universitaria, Medellín 050005, ColombiaBluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by <i>Culicoides</i> spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and <i>Culicoides insignis</i> in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (<i>n</i> = 145) and <i>C. insignis</i> (<i>n</i> = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/4/892Perubluetongue virus<i>Culicoides insignis</i>ecological nicheclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Dennis A. Navarro Mamani Heydi Ramos Huere Renzo Vera Buendia Miguel Rojas Wilfredo Arque Chunga Edgar Valdez Gutierrez Walter Vergara Abarca Hermelinda Rivera Gerónimo Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? Viruses Peru bluetongue virus <i>Culicoides insignis</i> ecological niche climate change |
| title | Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? |
| title_full | Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? |
| title_fullStr | Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? |
| title_short | Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru? |
| title_sort | would climate change influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of bluetongue virus and its main vector in peru |
| topic | Peru bluetongue virus <i>Culicoides insignis</i> ecological niche climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/4/892 |
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