Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share?
Planning the best path for the energy system decarbonization is currently one of the issues of high global interest. At the European level, the recent policies dealing with the transportation sector have decided to ban the registration of light-duty vehicles powered by internal combustion engines fe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/15/5690 |
| _version_ | 1797586790559776768 |
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| author | Piero Danieli Massimo Masi Andrea Lazzaretto Gianluca Carraro Enrico Dal Cin Gabriele Volpato |
| author_facet | Piero Danieli Massimo Masi Andrea Lazzaretto Gianluca Carraro Enrico Dal Cin Gabriele Volpato |
| author_sort | Piero Danieli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Planning the best path for the energy system decarbonization is currently one of the issues of high global interest. At the European level, the recent policies dealing with the transportation sector have decided to ban the registration of light-duty vehicles powered by internal combustion engines fed by fossil fuels, from 2035. Regardless of the official positions, the major players (industries, politicians, economic and statistical institutions, etc.) manifest several opinions on this decision. In this paper, a mathematical model of a nation’s energy system is used to evaluate the economic impact of this decision. The model considers a superstructure that incorporates all energy conversion and storage units, including the entire transportation sector. A series of succeeding simulations was run and each of them was constrained to the achievement of the decarbonization level fixed, year by year, by the European community road-map. For each simulation, an optimization algorithm searches for a less costly global energy system, by including/excluding from the energy system the energy conversion units, storage devices, using a Mixed Integer Linear approach. Three optimization scenarios were considered: (1) a “free” scenario in which the only constraint applied to the model is the achievement of the scheduled decarbonization targets; (2) an “e-fuels” scenario, in which all new non-battery-electric light-duty vehicles allowed after 2035 must be fed with e-fuels; (3) a “pure electric” scenario, in which all new light-duty vehicles allowed after 2035 are battery-electric vehicles. The comparison of the optimum solutions for the three scenarios demonstrates that the less costly transition to a fully renewable energy system decarbonizes the transportation sector only when the share of renewable energy sources exceeds 90%. E-fueled light-duty vehicles always turn out to be a less expensive alternative than the electric vehicles, mainly because of the very high cost of the energy supply infrastructure needed to charge the batteries. Most of all, the costs imposed to society by the “e-fuels” and “pure electric” light-duty-vehicle decarbonizing scenarios exceed by 20% and 60%, respectively, the “free” transition scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:28:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1e808612f44247d58354001a0fcdd78c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:28:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-1e808612f44247d58354001a0fcdd78c2023-11-18T22:51:34ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-07-011615569010.3390/en16155690Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share?Piero Danieli0Massimo Masi1Andrea Lazzaretto2Gianluca Carraro3Enrico Dal Cin4Gabriele Volpato5Department of Management and Engineering, University of Padova, 36100 Vicenza, ItalyDepartment of Management and Engineering, University of Padova, 36100 Vicenza, ItalyDepartment of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, 35131 Padua, ItalyDepartment of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, 35131 Padua, ItalyDepartment of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, 35131 Padua, ItalyDepartment of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, 35131 Padua, ItalyPlanning the best path for the energy system decarbonization is currently one of the issues of high global interest. At the European level, the recent policies dealing with the transportation sector have decided to ban the registration of light-duty vehicles powered by internal combustion engines fed by fossil fuels, from 2035. Regardless of the official positions, the major players (industries, politicians, economic and statistical institutions, etc.) manifest several opinions on this decision. In this paper, a mathematical model of a nation’s energy system is used to evaluate the economic impact of this decision. The model considers a superstructure that incorporates all energy conversion and storage units, including the entire transportation sector. A series of succeeding simulations was run and each of them was constrained to the achievement of the decarbonization level fixed, year by year, by the European community road-map. For each simulation, an optimization algorithm searches for a less costly global energy system, by including/excluding from the energy system the energy conversion units, storage devices, using a Mixed Integer Linear approach. Three optimization scenarios were considered: (1) a “free” scenario in which the only constraint applied to the model is the achievement of the scheduled decarbonization targets; (2) an “e-fuels” scenario, in which all new non-battery-electric light-duty vehicles allowed after 2035 must be fed with e-fuels; (3) a “pure electric” scenario, in which all new light-duty vehicles allowed after 2035 are battery-electric vehicles. The comparison of the optimum solutions for the three scenarios demonstrates that the less costly transition to a fully renewable energy system decarbonizes the transportation sector only when the share of renewable energy sources exceeds 90%. E-fueled light-duty vehicles always turn out to be a less expensive alternative than the electric vehicles, mainly because of the very high cost of the energy supply infrastructure needed to charge the batteries. Most of all, the costs imposed to society by the “e-fuels” and “pure electric” light-duty-vehicle decarbonizing scenarios exceed by 20% and 60%, respectively, the “free” transition scenario.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/15/5690energy transitiondecarbonization of transportation sectore-fuelselectric vehiclesMILP modeloptimization of national energy systems |
| spellingShingle | Piero Danieli Massimo Masi Andrea Lazzaretto Gianluca Carraro Enrico Dal Cin Gabriele Volpato Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? Energies energy transition decarbonization of transportation sector e-fuels electric vehicles MILP model optimization of national energy systems |
| title | Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? |
| title_full | Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? |
| title_fullStr | Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? |
| title_short | Is Banning Fossil-Fueled Internal Combustion Engines the First Step in a Realistic Transition to a 100% RES Share? |
| title_sort | is banning fossil fueled internal combustion engines the first step in a realistic transition to a 100 res share |
| topic | energy transition decarbonization of transportation sector e-fuels electric vehicles MILP model optimization of national energy systems |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/15/5690 |
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