Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia
Abstract Climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs) in South Asia (SA). The simultaneous increases in temperature and population will exacerbate the population exposure to future HWs. Here we estimate the future population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002511 |
| _version_ | 1818175189831122944 |
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| author | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Deliang Chen D. A. Sachindra Amir AghaKouchak Shichang Kang Mingcai Li Panmao Zhai Waheed Ullah |
| author_facet | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Deliang Chen D. A. Sachindra Amir AghaKouchak Shichang Kang Mingcai Li Panmao Zhai Waheed Ullah |
| author_sort | Safi Ullah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs) in South Asia (SA). The simultaneous increases in temperature and population will exacerbate the population exposure to future HWs. Here we estimate the future population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs in SA using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) during 2061–2100, relative to 1975–2014. The results show that the projected frequency and spatial extent of the daytime (nighttime) HWs will be higher under scenario SSP5‐8.5, followed by SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP1‐2.6 (SSP5‐8.5, followed by SSP3‐7.0, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP1‐2.6), relative to the historical period. The approach presented here allows decomposing the effects of climate change and future population on the overall exposure. The results reveal that the compounding effects of projected trends in population and HWs will significantly escalate the population exposure to HWs. Under the selected SSPs, the total population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs ranges from 185 to 492 and 204–555 million people‐event, respectively, with the maximum exposure occurring in the Indo‐Gigantic Plain. The wide range of exposed populations highlights the sensitivity of the overall exposure to our future socioeconomic pathway decisions, emphasizing the importance of curbing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and adopting sustainable urban planning solutions to minimize the potential socioeconomic and health impacts of HWs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:56:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1e9ac6de3c09476aae3bce3f67830e48 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:56:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-1e9ac6de3c09476aae3bce3f67830e482022-12-22T00:52:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-05-01105n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002511Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South AsiaSafi Ullah0Qinglong You1Deliang Chen2D. A. Sachindra3Amir AghaKouchak4Shichang Kang5Mingcai Li6Panmao Zhai7Waheed Ullah8Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai ChinaDepartment of Earth Sciences Regional Climate Group University of Gothenburg Gothenburg SwedenDepartment of Hydrology and Climatology Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management Maria Curie‐Sklodowska University Lublin PolandDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Irvine CA USAState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco‐Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou ChinaTianjin Institute of Meteorological Science Tianjin ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract Climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs) in South Asia (SA). The simultaneous increases in temperature and population will exacerbate the population exposure to future HWs. Here we estimate the future population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs in SA using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) during 2061–2100, relative to 1975–2014. The results show that the projected frequency and spatial extent of the daytime (nighttime) HWs will be higher under scenario SSP5‐8.5, followed by SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP1‐2.6 (SSP5‐8.5, followed by SSP3‐7.0, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP1‐2.6), relative to the historical period. The approach presented here allows decomposing the effects of climate change and future population on the overall exposure. The results reveal that the compounding effects of projected trends in population and HWs will significantly escalate the population exposure to HWs. Under the selected SSPs, the total population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs ranges from 185 to 492 and 204–555 million people‐event, respectively, with the maximum exposure occurring in the Indo‐Gigantic Plain. The wide range of exposed populations highlights the sensitivity of the overall exposure to our future socioeconomic pathway decisions, emphasizing the importance of curbing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and adopting sustainable urban planning solutions to minimize the potential socioeconomic and health impacts of HWs.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002511population exposuredaytime heatwavesnighttime heatwavescoupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6)shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)south Asia |
| spellingShingle | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Deliang Chen D. A. Sachindra Amir AghaKouchak Shichang Kang Mingcai Li Panmao Zhai Waheed Ullah Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia Earth's Future population exposure daytime heatwaves nighttime heatwaves coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) south Asia |
| title | Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia |
| title_full | Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia |
| title_fullStr | Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia |
| title_short | Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia |
| title_sort | future population exposure to daytime and nighttime heat waves in south asia |
| topic | population exposure daytime heatwaves nighttime heatwaves coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) south Asia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002511 |
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