Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
<p><span id="page3440"/>Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections o...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/3439/2020/bg-17-3439-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p><span id="page3440"/>Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation,
reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected
to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change
over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced
under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in
the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global
mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) <span class="inline-formula">±</span> the inter-model SD in sea
surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 <span class="inline-formula">m</span>) oxygen concentration, euphotic
(0–100 <span class="inline-formula">m</span>) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is
<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>+</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">3.47</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.78</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="3910766c10e761caa3149bc1a88762a2"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span>, <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.44</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.005</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="3392f7f2240c867a3410cdf0c7d50518"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00002.svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00002.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>, <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M7" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">13.27</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">5.28</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="858ec682e1acc383b799dd4daf8589fa"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00003.svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00003.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>,
<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M8" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.06</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.45</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="54c087f67194f2442ec62022a7116052"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00004.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00004.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula">mmol m<sup>−3</sup></span> and <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M10" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.99</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">9.11</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="262abe9d0337b5d11fc591465f9629e3"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00005.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00005.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> %, respectively. Under the
low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are
<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M11" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>+</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">1.42</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.32</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="ad5956e26fa49a6bf9f02b400277e338"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00006.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00006.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span>, <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M13" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.16</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.002</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="9ea497d18e4f197609b66ccb8eabcc1e"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00007.svg" width="70pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00007.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>, <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M14" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">6.36</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">2.92</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="81a24a8375727c965571a736e57a7958"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00008.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00008.png"/></svg:svg></span></span>,
<span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M15" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.52</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.23</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="56197c3115a764be9f9b3ce91d1efa68"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00009.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00009.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> <span class="inline-formula">mmol m<sup>−3</sup></span>, and <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M17" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.56</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">4.12</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="87db0d119fd74055f23d71068b66dcca"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00010.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="bg-17-3439-2020-ie00010.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> %. Projected exposure of the marine
ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions,
consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming,
acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than
those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results
from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of
CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which
contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The
greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher
associated atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same
radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an
increase in net primary
production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |