An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study
Abstract Background Various predictive models have been developed for predicting the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), but none of them has had optimal predictive value. Although these models consider diabetes as an important CHD risk factor, they do not consider insulin resistance or trigl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Cardiovascular Diabetology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01939-9 |
| _version_ | 1797453998076198912 |
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| author | Seyed Reza Mirjalili Sepideh Soltani Zahra Heidari Meybodi Pedro Marques-Vidal Alexander Kraemer Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi |
| author_facet | Seyed Reza Mirjalili Sepideh Soltani Zahra Heidari Meybodi Pedro Marques-Vidal Alexander Kraemer Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi |
| author_sort | Seyed Reza Mirjalili |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Various predictive models have been developed for predicting the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), but none of them has had optimal predictive value. Although these models consider diabetes as an important CHD risk factor, they do not consider insulin resistance or triglyceride (TG). The unsatisfactory performance of these prediction models may be attributed to the ignoring of these factors despite their proven effects on CHD. We decided to modify standard CHD predictive models through machine learning to determine whether the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG-index, a logarithmized combination of fasting blood sugar (FBS) and TG that demonstrates insulin resistance) functions better than diabetes as a CHD predictor. Methods Two-thousand participants of a community-based Iranian population, aged 20–74 years, were investigated with a mean follow-up of 9.9 years (range: 7.6–12.2). The association between the TyG-index and CHD was investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. By selecting common components of previously validated CHD risk scores, we developed machine learning models for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was substituted for diabetes in CHD prediction models. All components of machine learning models were explained in terms of how they affect CHD prediction. CHD-predicting TyG-index cut-off points were calculated. Results The incidence of CHD was 14.5%. Compared to the lowest quartile of the TyG-index, the fourth quartile had a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 2.32 (confidence interval [CI] 1.16–4.68, p-trend 0.04). A TyG-index > 8.42 had the highest negative predictive value for CHD. The TyG-index-based support vector machine (SVM) performed significantly better than diabetes-based SVM for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was not only more important than diabetes in predicting CHD; it was the most important factor after age in machine learning models. Conclusion We recommend using the TyG-index in clinical practice and predictive models to identify individuals at risk of developing CHD and to aid in its prevention. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:30:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f051f72717e420db4b4099df14168b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-2840 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:30:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cardiovascular Diabetology |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f051f72717e420db4b4099df14168b92023-11-26T12:15:46ZengBMCCardiovascular Diabetology1475-28402023-08-0122111210.1186/s12933-023-01939-9An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort studySeyed Reza Mirjalili0Sepideh Soltani1Zahra Heidari Meybodi2Pedro Marques-Vidal3Alexander Kraemer4Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi5Yazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesYazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesYazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Internal MedicineDepartment of Health Sciences, Bielefeld UniversityYazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesAbstract Background Various predictive models have been developed for predicting the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), but none of them has had optimal predictive value. Although these models consider diabetes as an important CHD risk factor, they do not consider insulin resistance or triglyceride (TG). The unsatisfactory performance of these prediction models may be attributed to the ignoring of these factors despite their proven effects on CHD. We decided to modify standard CHD predictive models through machine learning to determine whether the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG-index, a logarithmized combination of fasting blood sugar (FBS) and TG that demonstrates insulin resistance) functions better than diabetes as a CHD predictor. Methods Two-thousand participants of a community-based Iranian population, aged 20–74 years, were investigated with a mean follow-up of 9.9 years (range: 7.6–12.2). The association between the TyG-index and CHD was investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. By selecting common components of previously validated CHD risk scores, we developed machine learning models for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was substituted for diabetes in CHD prediction models. All components of machine learning models were explained in terms of how they affect CHD prediction. CHD-predicting TyG-index cut-off points were calculated. Results The incidence of CHD was 14.5%. Compared to the lowest quartile of the TyG-index, the fourth quartile had a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 2.32 (confidence interval [CI] 1.16–4.68, p-trend 0.04). A TyG-index > 8.42 had the highest negative predictive value for CHD. The TyG-index-based support vector machine (SVM) performed significantly better than diabetes-based SVM for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was not only more important than diabetes in predicting CHD; it was the most important factor after age in machine learning models. Conclusion We recommend using the TyG-index in clinical practice and predictive models to identify individuals at risk of developing CHD and to aid in its prevention.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01939-9TyG-indexCoronary heart diseaseMachine learningCohort studyPredictive model |
| spellingShingle | Seyed Reza Mirjalili Sepideh Soltani Zahra Heidari Meybodi Pedro Marques-Vidal Alexander Kraemer Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study Cardiovascular Diabetology TyG-index Coronary heart disease Machine learning Cohort study Predictive model |
| title | An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study |
| title_full | An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study |
| title_fullStr | An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study |
| title_short | An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study |
| title_sort | innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride glucose index a machine learning based cohort study |
| topic | TyG-index Coronary heart disease Machine learning Cohort study Predictive model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01939-9 |
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