Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case
The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic caused the loss of lives, global problems, and the collapse of economies. Especially, the high unemployment rates in developing countries at present makes the unemployment rate predictions important. The aim of this study is to estimate the unemployment rate for t...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Dokuz Eylül University
2021-09-01
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| Series: | İzmir İktisat Dergisi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1710672 |
| _version_ | 1797912343806476288 |
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| author | Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner İlyas Sözen |
| author_facet | Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner İlyas Sözen |
| author_sort | Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic caused the loss of lives, global problems, and the collapse of economies. Especially, the high unemployment rates in developing countries at present makes the unemployment rate predictions important. The aim of this study is to estimate the unemployment rate for the future by ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models for Turkey. The contribution of the study to the literature is to estimate the unemployment rate in Turkey in the aftermath of the Covid-19 by ARIMA and ANN models. In the study, the Box-Jenkins method was used to find the appropriate ARIMA process. Then, the estimated performance of the results obtained up to 2021M8 unemployment rates in Turkey have been compared in the framework of criteria for success. Our results show that ANN was more successful than the ARIMA model in estimating the unemployment variable. It seemed that the unemployment rate estimated by the model is very close to the actual unemployment rate. According to the model results, in the aftermath of Covid-19, the unemployment rate in Turkey will be occurred over 5% of the natural rate of unemployment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T11:54:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f3995331648436d8af2eae55b0d6ddb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1308-8173 1308-8505 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T11:54:30Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Dokuz Eylül University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | İzmir İktisat Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f3995331648436d8af2eae55b0d6ddb2023-02-15T16:16:51ZengDokuz Eylül Universityİzmir İktisat Dergisi1308-81731308-85052021-09-0136368569310.24988/ije.20213631259Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish CaseMustafa Batuhan Tufaner0İlyas Sözen1BEYKENT ÜNİVERSİTESİDOKUZ EYLÜL ÜNİVERSİTESİThe coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic caused the loss of lives, global problems, and the collapse of economies. Especially, the high unemployment rates in developing countries at present makes the unemployment rate predictions important. The aim of this study is to estimate the unemployment rate for the future by ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models for Turkey. The contribution of the study to the literature is to estimate the unemployment rate in Turkey in the aftermath of the Covid-19 by ARIMA and ANN models. In the study, the Box-Jenkins method was used to find the appropriate ARIMA process. Then, the estimated performance of the results obtained up to 2021M8 unemployment rates in Turkey have been compared in the framework of criteria for success. Our results show that ANN was more successful than the ARIMA model in estimating the unemployment variable. It seemed that the unemployment rate estimated by the model is very close to the actual unemployment rate. According to the model results, in the aftermath of Covid-19, the unemployment rate in Turkey will be occurred over 5% of the natural rate of unemployment.https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1710672covid-19unemploymentartificial neural networksarimaturkeycovid-19i̇şsizlikyapay sinir ağlarıarimatürkiye |
| spellingShingle | Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner İlyas Sözen Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case İzmir İktisat Dergisi covid-19 unemployment artificial neural networks arima turkey covid-19 i̇şsizlik yapay sinir ağları arima türkiye |
| title | Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case |
| title_full | Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case |
| title_short | Forecasting Unemployment Rate in the Aftermath of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Turkish Case |
| title_sort | forecasting unemployment rate in the aftermath of the covid 19 pandemic the turkish case |
| topic | covid-19 unemployment artificial neural networks arima turkey covid-19 i̇şsizlik yapay sinir ağları arima türkiye |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1710672 |
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