Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions

With up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often ove...

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Main Authors: Teun van Woerkom, Rens van Beek, Hans Middelkoop, Marc F. P. Bierkens
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-11-01
Series:Water
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3041
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author Teun van Woerkom
Rens van Beek
Hans Middelkoop
Marc F. P. Bierkens
author_facet Teun van Woerkom
Rens van Beek
Hans Middelkoop
Marc F. P. Bierkens
author_sort Teun van Woerkom
collection DOAJ
description With up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often oversimplified due to limited understanding of the important process parameters. To improve the understanding of these parameters, we performed a global sensitivity analysis on a comprehensive hydro-stability model. The sensitivity analysis encompassed fifteen parameters related to geometry, drainage conditions and material properties. The following three sensitivity settings were selected to characterize model behavior: parameter prioritization, trend identification and interaction qualification. The first two showed that dike stability is mostly dependent on the dike slope, followed by the type of subsurface material. Interaction quantification indicated a very prominent interaction between the dike and subsurface material, as it influences both groundwater conditions and dike stability directly. Despite our relatively simple model setup, a database containing the results of the extensive Monte Carlo analysis succeeded in finding most of the unsafe sections identified by the official inspection results. This supports the applicability of our results and demonstrates that both geometry and subsurface parameters affect the groundwater conditions and dike stability.
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spelling doaj.art-1f559dfce50b4ca6ab76b3f3a4bd8baa2023-11-22T21:54:25ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-11-011321304110.3390/w13213041Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading ConditionsTeun van Woerkom0Rens van Beek1Hans Middelkoop2Marc F. P. Bierkens3Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The NetherlandsWith up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often oversimplified due to limited understanding of the important process parameters. To improve the understanding of these parameters, we performed a global sensitivity analysis on a comprehensive hydro-stability model. The sensitivity analysis encompassed fifteen parameters related to geometry, drainage conditions and material properties. The following three sensitivity settings were selected to characterize model behavior: parameter prioritization, trend identification and interaction qualification. The first two showed that dike stability is mostly dependent on the dike slope, followed by the type of subsurface material. Interaction quantification indicated a very prominent interaction between the dike and subsurface material, as it influences both groundwater conditions and dike stability directly. Despite our relatively simple model setup, a database containing the results of the extensive Monte Carlo analysis succeeded in finding most of the unsafe sections identified by the official inspection results. This supports the applicability of our results and demonstrates that both geometry and subsurface parameters affect the groundwater conditions and dike stability.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3041groundwaterflood defensessensitivity analysisdike stabilityflood safety
spellingShingle Teun van Woerkom
Rens van Beek
Hans Middelkoop
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
Water
groundwater
flood defenses
sensitivity analysis
dike stability
flood safety
title Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_full Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_fullStr Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_full_unstemmed Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_short Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_sort global sensitivity analysis of groundwater related dike stability under extreme loading conditions
topic groundwater
flood defenses
sensitivity analysis
dike stability
flood safety
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3041
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