HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects
<p>Human actions induce and modify droughts. However, scientific gaps remain with respect to how hydrological processes, anthropogenic dynamics, and individuals' perceptions of impacts are intrinsically entangled in drought occurrence and evolution. This adds complexity to drought assessm...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/4217/2023/hess-27-4217-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797449125694799872 |
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| author | G. G. Ribeiro Neto S. Kchouk L. A. Melsen L. Cavalcante D. W. Walker A. Dewulf A. C. Costa E. S. P. R. Martins E. S. P. R. Martins P. R. van Oel |
| author_facet | G. G. Ribeiro Neto S. Kchouk L. A. Melsen L. Cavalcante D. W. Walker A. Dewulf A. C. Costa E. S. P. R. Martins E. S. P. R. Martins P. R. van Oel |
| author_sort | G. G. Ribeiro Neto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Human actions induce and modify droughts. However, scientific gaps remain with respect to how hydrological processes, anthropogenic dynamics, and individuals' perceptions of impacts are intrinsically entangled in drought occurrence and evolution. This adds complexity to drought assessment studies that cannot be addressed by the natural and environmental sciences alone. Furthermore, it poses a challenge with respect to developing ways to evaluate human behaviour and its pattern of co-evolution with the hydrological cycle – mainly related to water use and landscape modifications. During fieldwork in Brazil, we observed how drought impacts were experienced by people who were exposed to a multi-year drought. Evaluating our data, it appeared that prospect theory, a behavioural economic theory that is usually applied to explain decision-making processes under uncertainty, has explanatory power regarding what we observed in the field. Therefore, we propose an interdisciplinary approach to improve the understanding of drought impact emergence using this theory. When employing prospect theory in this context, drought impacts are considered failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. A shifting baseline after prolonged exposure to drought can therefore mitigate experienced drought impacts. We demonstrate that this theory can also contribute to explaining socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects. This new approach can help bridge natural science and social science perspectives, resulting in integrated drought management that considers the local context.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:20:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f5698e66d9445a5b97f940611c12c3e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:20:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f5698e66d9445a5b97f940611c12c3e2023-11-28T12:15:09ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382023-11-01274217422510.5194/hess-27-4217-2023HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospectsG. G. Ribeiro Neto0S. Kchouk1L. A. Melsen2L. Cavalcante3D. W. Walker4A. Dewulf5A. C. Costa6E. S. P. R. Martins7E. S. P. R. Martins8P. R. van Oel9Hydrology and Environmental Hydraulics, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsHydrology and Environmental Hydraulics, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsPublic Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsPublic Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsInstitute of Engineering and Sustainable Development, University of International Integration of the Afro-Brazilian Lusophony, Redenção, BrazilResearch Institute of Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME), Fortaleza, BrazilDepartment of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, BrazilWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands<p>Human actions induce and modify droughts. However, scientific gaps remain with respect to how hydrological processes, anthropogenic dynamics, and individuals' perceptions of impacts are intrinsically entangled in drought occurrence and evolution. This adds complexity to drought assessment studies that cannot be addressed by the natural and environmental sciences alone. Furthermore, it poses a challenge with respect to developing ways to evaluate human behaviour and its pattern of co-evolution with the hydrological cycle – mainly related to water use and landscape modifications. During fieldwork in Brazil, we observed how drought impacts were experienced by people who were exposed to a multi-year drought. Evaluating our data, it appeared that prospect theory, a behavioural economic theory that is usually applied to explain decision-making processes under uncertainty, has explanatory power regarding what we observed in the field. Therefore, we propose an interdisciplinary approach to improve the understanding of drought impact emergence using this theory. When employing prospect theory in this context, drought impacts are considered failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. A shifting baseline after prolonged exposure to drought can therefore mitigate experienced drought impacts. We demonstrate that this theory can also contribute to explaining socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects. This new approach can help bridge natural science and social science perspectives, resulting in integrated drought management that considers the local context.</p>https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/4217/2023/hess-27-4217-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | G. G. Ribeiro Neto S. Kchouk L. A. Melsen L. Cavalcante D. W. Walker A. Dewulf A. C. Costa E. S. P. R. Martins E. S. P. R. Martins P. R. van Oel HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects |
| title_full | HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects |
| title_fullStr | HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects |
| title_full_unstemmed | HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects |
| title_short | HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects |
| title_sort | hess opinions drought impacts as failed prospects |
| url | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/4217/2023/hess-27-4217-2023.pdf |
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