Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones
An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 |
| _version_ | 1797748608442826752 |
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| author | Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan |
| author_facet | Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan |
| author_sort | Il-Ju Moon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We show that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by basin-to-basin changes in TC frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The contribution of the frequency changes to the poleward migration is comparable to that of the mean meridional environmental changes. A statistically significant global poleward trend can be identified simply from the frequency changes in each basin. An opposite trend exists in the frequency variations over the past 30 years between the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific where climatological mean latitudes of LMI are high (26.1°N) and low (16.5°N), respectively, which is the key factor in driving the frequency contribution. The strong roles of the interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that if the phase of multidecadal variability in the NH is reversed, as found in earlier TC records, the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite, equatorward, trend in the future. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:07:15Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e2023-08-09T14:17:07ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-01101010400410.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclonesIl-Ju Moon0Sung-Hun Kim1Phil Klotzbach2Johnny C L Chan3Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University , Ara 1 Dong. Jejusi 690-756, KoreaTyphoon Research Center, Jeju National University , Ara 1 Dong. Jejusi 690-756, KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University , Fort Collins, CO 80523, USAGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong , Hong KongAn observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We show that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by basin-to-basin changes in TC frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The contribution of the frequency changes to the poleward migration is comparable to that of the mean meridional environmental changes. A statistically significant global poleward trend can be identified simply from the frequency changes in each basin. An opposite trend exists in the frequency variations over the past 30 years between the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific where climatological mean latitudes of LMI are high (26.1°N) and low (16.5°N), respectively, which is the key factor in driving the frequency contribution. The strong roles of the interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that if the phase of multidecadal variability in the NH is reversed, as found in earlier TC records, the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite, equatorward, trend in the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004tropical cyclonepoleward migrationmaximum intensity locationfrequency change |
| spellingShingle | Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones Environmental Research Letters tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change |
| title | Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| title_full | Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| title_short | Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| title_sort | roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
| topic | tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 |
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