The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025
Background This study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It also assesses if Ireland at 2016 has outperformed the projection from the previous model based on the data between 1998 and 2010. If yes, wh...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
European Publishing
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.journalssystem.com/tid/The-effect-of-tobacco-control-policies-on-smoking-prevalence-using-the-SimSmoke-Ireland,84260,0,2.html |
| _version_ | 1811329566909661184 |
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| author | Shasha Li David Levy Luke Clancy |
| author_facet | Shasha Li David Levy Luke Clancy |
| author_sort | Shasha Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background
This
study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998
and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It also assesses
if Ireland at 2016 has outperformed the projection from the previous model
based on the data between 1998 and 2010. If yes, what contributed to the outperformance
and how will it help Ireland to get closer to Tobacco Free Ireland (TFI) 2025 (End
Game)?
Methods
SimSmoke, the dynamic simulation model of tobacco control
policy, was adapted to examine the present impact of Irish tobacco control
policies on smoking prevalence, through initiation and cessation, and
smoking-attributable deaths and to make predictions for the future.
Results
The previous model projection for Ireland 2016 male smoking
prevalence was 25% under Status Quo and 21% under all MPOWER policies. The new model predicts that the male smoking
rate for ages 18 and older of 33.4% in 1998 falls to 19.7% in 2016 achieving a
41% reduction, which matches observed. The outperformance could be explained by
price increase, stronger health warnings, improved youth 'access' enforcement
and improved smoking cessation treatment
between 2011 and 2016. [New SimSmoke Ireland Model of Smoking Prevalence]
Conclusions
Ireland smoking prevalence in 2016 has outperformed the old
model prediction under all MPOWER policies. Although between 2011 and 2016
Ireland has improved in the areas mentioned above, they did not reach the
highest levels according to MPOWER standard, which implies two points. One is
that there is more room for Ireland to further reduce smoking prevalence by fully
applying policies according to MPOWER. Some policies are not fully accounted
for by the model, which have been introduced in the period, such as the ban on
smoking in cars where children are present and plain packaging legislation, but
new policies are needed to achieve TFI. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:46:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f62486e110a4896aaae9a2e3d9bc4ee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1617-9625 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:46:06Z |
| publishDate | 2018-03-01 |
| publisher | European Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f62486e110a4896aaae9a2e3d9bc4ee2022-12-22T02:40:58ZengEuropean PublishingTobacco Induced Diseases1617-96252018-03-0116110.18332/tid/8426084260The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025Shasha Li0David Levy1Luke Clancy2TobaccoFree Research Institute Ireland, IrelandGeorgetown University, United States of AmericaTobaccoFree Research Institute Ireland, IrelandBackground This study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It also assesses if Ireland at 2016 has outperformed the projection from the previous model based on the data between 1998 and 2010. If yes, what contributed to the outperformance and how will it help Ireland to get closer to Tobacco Free Ireland (TFI) 2025 (End Game)? Methods SimSmoke, the dynamic simulation model of tobacco control policy, was adapted to examine the present impact of Irish tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence, through initiation and cessation, and smoking-attributable deaths and to make predictions for the future. Results The previous model projection for Ireland 2016 male smoking prevalence was 25% under Status Quo and 21% under all MPOWER policies. The new model predicts that the male smoking rate for ages 18 and older of 33.4% in 1998 falls to 19.7% in 2016 achieving a 41% reduction, which matches observed. The outperformance could be explained by price increase, stronger health warnings, improved youth 'access' enforcement and improved smoking cessation treatment between 2011 and 2016. [New SimSmoke Ireland Model of Smoking Prevalence] Conclusions Ireland smoking prevalence in 2016 has outperformed the old model prediction under all MPOWER policies. Although between 2011 and 2016 Ireland has improved in the areas mentioned above, they did not reach the highest levels according to MPOWER standard, which implies two points. One is that there is more room for Ireland to further reduce smoking prevalence by fully applying policies according to MPOWER. Some policies are not fully accounted for by the model, which have been introduced in the period, such as the ban on smoking in cars where children are present and plain packaging legislation, but new policies are needed to achieve TFI.http://www.journalssystem.com/tid/The-effect-of-tobacco-control-policies-on-smoking-prevalence-using-the-SimSmoke-Ireland,84260,0,2.htmlWCTOH |
| spellingShingle | Shasha Li David Levy Luke Clancy The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 Tobacco Induced Diseases WCTOH |
| title | The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 |
| title_full | The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 |
| title_fullStr | The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 |
| title_short | The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the SimSmoke Ireland model: influence of interventions 2010-2016 on reaching End Game 2025 |
| title_sort | effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence using the simsmoke ireland model influence of interventions 2010 2016 on reaching end game 2025 |
| topic | WCTOH |
| url | http://www.journalssystem.com/tid/The-effect-of-tobacco-control-policies-on-smoking-prevalence-using-the-SimSmoke-Ireland,84260,0,2.html |
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