Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index
This study proposes a probabilistic drought forecasting model to forecast meteorological drought in Southern Taiwan using the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. Meteorological drought is defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the ENSO index is El Niño sea surface temperat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://tao.cgu.org.tw/images/attachments/v245p911.pdf
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| _version_ | 1818547326861443072 |
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| author | Shien-Tsung Chen Tao-Chang Yang Chen-Min Kuo Chih-Hao Kuo Pao-Shan Yu |
| author_facet | Shien-Tsung Chen Tao-Chang Yang Chen-Min Kuo Chih-Hao Kuo Pao-Shan Yu |
| author_sort | Shien-Tsung Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study proposes a probabilistic drought forecasting model to forecast meteorological drought in Southern Taiwan using the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. Meteorological drought is defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the ENSO index is El Niño sea surface temperature (SST). Two probabilistic forecasting model architectures were constructed based on the transition probabilities from El Niño SSTs to SPIs. Both model architectures forecast a one-month-ahead probability distribution for meteorological drought using different combinations of El Niño SST variables. Forecasting results showed the robustness of the probabilistic drought forecasting models. In addition, this study discussed the selection of El Niño SST variables used in the probabilistic drought forecasting model, and found that models with a single SST input outperformed those with multiple SST inputs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:05:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f67e0a557694cf8bc5cb3d202cd6899 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1017-0839 2311-7680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:05:16Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f67e0a557694cf8bc5cb3d202cd68992022-12-22T00:32:00ZengSpringerTerrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences1017-08392311-76802013-01-0124591110.3319/TAO.2013.06.04.01(Hy)1183Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation IndexShien-Tsung ChenTao-Chang YangChen-Min KuoChih-Hao KuoPao-Shan YuThis study proposes a probabilistic drought forecasting model to forecast meteorological drought in Southern Taiwan using the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. Meteorological drought is defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the ENSO index is El Niño sea surface temperature (SST). Two probabilistic forecasting model architectures were constructed based on the transition probabilities from El Niño SSTs to SPIs. Both model architectures forecast a one-month-ahead probability distribution for meteorological drought using different combinations of El Niño SST variables. Forecasting results showed the robustness of the probabilistic drought forecasting models. In addition, this study discussed the selection of El Niño SST variables used in the probabilistic drought forecasting model, and found that models with a single SST input outperformed those with multiple SST inputs. http://tao.cgu.org.tw/images/attachments/v245p911.pdf DroughtProbabilistic forecastingENSOTransition probabilityEl Niño sea surface temperature |
| spellingShingle | Shien-Tsung Chen Tao-Chang Yang Chen-Min Kuo Chih-Hao Kuo Pao-Shan Yu Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Drought Probabilistic forecasting ENSO Transition probability El Niño sea surface temperature |
| title | Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index |
| title_full | Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index |
| title_short | Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index |
| title_sort | probabilistic drought forecasting in southern taiwan using el nino southern oscillation index |
| topic | Drought Probabilistic forecasting ENSO Transition probability El Niño sea surface temperature |
| url |
http://tao.cgu.org.tw/images/attachments/v245p911.pdf
|
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