Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming
Using all ensemble members of NCAR CCSM4 for historical natural, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from CMIP5, we analyse changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the south Asian region for every 0.5 ^o C increase in global warming. An increase in mean annual precipitation is projected over majority...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271 |
| _version_ | 1797748044942278656 |
|---|---|
| author | Mansi Bhowmick Sandeep Sahany Saroj K Mishra |
| author_facet | Mansi Bhowmick Sandeep Sahany Saroj K Mishra |
| author_sort | Mansi Bhowmick |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using all ensemble members of NCAR CCSM4 for historical natural, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from CMIP5, we analyse changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the south Asian region for every 0.5 ^o C increase in global warming. An increase in mean annual precipitation is projected over majority of the south Asian region with increased levels of warming. Over Indian land, the spatially-averaged annual mean precipitation shows an increase in the range of ~2-14 % based on the RCP scenario and level of warming. However, a decrease in mean annual precipitation is projected over northwest parts of the Indian sub-continent and the equatorial Indian Ocean with increased levels of warming. In general, we find multifold increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding oceans. Over Indian land, frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes show up to three-fold increase under both RCP scenarios for global warming levels in the range of 1.5 ^o C–2.5 ^o C. With further increase in warming we find that the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes could show a massive four- to six-fold increase over majority of Indian land. Notably, unlike the projected increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes, the projected change in annual mean precipitation is found to be insignificant in a 1.5 ^o C warmer world, over majority of the south Asian region, under both RCP scenarios. Given the projected large increase in frequency of daily precipitation extremes with increased levels of warming, our study provides scientific support to the recommendations of the Paris Agreement of 2015. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f68c03383fa48febcc26a28a18167b8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:20Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f68c03383fa48febcc26a28a18167b82023-08-09T14:41:27ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114505400510.1088/1748-9326/ab1271Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warmingMansi Bhowmick0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6985-2493Sandeep Sahany1Saroj K Mishra2Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, IndiaCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, IndiaCentre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, IndiaUsing all ensemble members of NCAR CCSM4 for historical natural, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from CMIP5, we analyse changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the south Asian region for every 0.5 ^o C increase in global warming. An increase in mean annual precipitation is projected over majority of the south Asian region with increased levels of warming. Over Indian land, the spatially-averaged annual mean precipitation shows an increase in the range of ~2-14 % based on the RCP scenario and level of warming. However, a decrease in mean annual precipitation is projected over northwest parts of the Indian sub-continent and the equatorial Indian Ocean with increased levels of warming. In general, we find multifold increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding oceans. Over Indian land, frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes show up to three-fold increase under both RCP scenarios for global warming levels in the range of 1.5 ^o C–2.5 ^o C. With further increase in warming we find that the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes could show a massive four- to six-fold increase over majority of Indian land. Notably, unlike the projected increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes, the projected change in annual mean precipitation is found to be insignificant in a 1.5 ^o C warmer world, over majority of the south Asian region, under both RCP scenarios. Given the projected large increase in frequency of daily precipitation extremes with increased levels of warming, our study provides scientific support to the recommendations of the Paris Agreement of 2015.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271south Asiaextreme rainfallannual precipitationglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Mansi Bhowmick Sandeep Sahany Saroj K Mishra Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming Environmental Research Letters south Asia extreme rainfall annual precipitation global warming |
| title | Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming |
| title_full | Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming |
| title_fullStr | Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming |
| title_short | Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °C increase in global warming |
| title_sort | projected precipitation changes over the south asian region for every 0 5 °c increase in global warming |
| topic | south Asia extreme rainfall annual precipitation global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mansibhowmick projectedprecipitationchangesoverthesouthasianregionforevery05cincreaseinglobalwarming AT sandeepsahany projectedprecipitationchangesoverthesouthasianregionforevery05cincreaseinglobalwarming AT sarojkmishra projectedprecipitationchangesoverthesouthasianregionforevery05cincreaseinglobalwarming |