Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.
Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011426&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1797304736898088960 |
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| author | Louis Yat Hin Chan Gunnar Rø Jørgen Eriksson Midtbø Francesco Di Ruscio Sara Sofie Viksmoen Watle Lene Kristine Juvet Jasper Littmann Preben Aavitsland Karin Maria Nygård Are Stuwitz Berg Geir Bukholm Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen Kenth Engø-Monsen Solveig Engebretsen David Swanson Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Jonas Christoffer Lindstrøm Arnoldo Frigessi Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio |
| author_facet | Louis Yat Hin Chan Gunnar Rø Jørgen Eriksson Midtbø Francesco Di Ruscio Sara Sofie Viksmoen Watle Lene Kristine Juvet Jasper Littmann Preben Aavitsland Karin Maria Nygård Are Stuwitz Berg Geir Bukholm Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen Kenth Engø-Monsen Solveig Engebretsen David Swanson Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Jonas Christoffer Lindstrøm Arnoldo Frigessi Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio |
| author_sort | Louis Yat Hin Chan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:14:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1f78d389ab384973af3d100e16d75150 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:14:50Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-1f78d389ab384973af3d100e16d751502024-02-17T05:31:17ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582024-01-01201e101142610.1371/journal.pcbi.1011426Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.Louis Yat Hin ChanGunnar RøJørgen Eriksson MidtbøFrancesco Di RuscioSara Sofie Viksmoen WatleLene Kristine JuvetJasper LittmannPreben AavitslandKarin Maria NygårdAre Stuwitz BergGeir BukholmAnja Bråthen KristoffersenKenth Engø-MonsenSolveig EngebretsenDavid SwansonAlfonso Diz-Lois PalomaresJonas Christoffer LindstrømArnoldo FrigessiBirgitte Freiesleben de BlasioVaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic.https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011426&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Louis Yat Hin Chan Gunnar Rø Jørgen Eriksson Midtbø Francesco Di Ruscio Sara Sofie Viksmoen Watle Lene Kristine Juvet Jasper Littmann Preben Aavitsland Karin Maria Nygård Are Stuwitz Berg Geir Bukholm Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen Kenth Engø-Monsen Solveig Engebretsen David Swanson Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Jonas Christoffer Lindstrøm Arnoldo Frigessi Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. |
| title_full | Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. |
| title_fullStr | Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. |
| title_short | Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. |
| title_sort | modeling geographic vaccination strategies for covid 19 in norway |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011426&type=printable |
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