Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes
This work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact pressures and subsequent risk estimates. A ty...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022001034/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797770513396793344 |
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| author | Taline Zgheib Florie Giacona Samuel Morin Anne-Marie Granet-Abisset Philoméne Favier Nicolas Eckert |
| author_facet | Taline Zgheib Florie Giacona Samuel Morin Anne-Marie Granet-Abisset Philoméne Favier Nicolas Eckert |
| author_sort | Taline Zgheib |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact pressures and subsequent risk estimates. A typical case study of the French Alps shows that, from a completely deforested to a completely forested path, avalanche risk for a building located downslope decreases by 53–99%, depending on how forest cover is accounted for in avalanche statistical–dynamical modeling. Local forest cover data inferred from old maps and photographs further demonstrates that a 20–60% risk reduction actually occurred between 1825 and 2017 at the site because of the afforestation dynamics, with significant modulations according to the considered building technology. These results (1) assert the protective role of forests against snow avalanches, (2) highlight the potential of combining nature-based solutions with traditional structural measures to reduce risk to acceptable levels at reasonable costs, (3) suggest a significant decrease in risk to settlements in areas that encountered similar forest cover changes and (4) open the door to the quantification of long-term avalanche risk changes as a function of changes of all its hazard, vulnerability and exposure drivers in various mountain context. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:24:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1fd1b8bea3d04734a32f5f6a911e2a95 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:24:22Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj.art-1fd1b8bea3d04734a32f5f6a911e2a952023-07-28T10:47:45ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522023-08-016984185910.1017/jog.2022.103Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changesTaline Zgheib0Florie Giacona1Samuel Morin2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1781-687XAnne-Marie Granet-Abisset3Philoméne Favier4Nicolas Eckert5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1880-8820INRAE, ETNA, University Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, FranceINRAE, ETNA, University Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, FranceCNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, University Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, Grenoble, FranceUMR CNRS 5190 Laboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes (LARHRA), University Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin-d'Héres, FranceINRAE, LESSEM, University Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, FranceINRAE, ETNA, University Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, FranceThis work proposes a holistic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment that evaluates, at reasonable computational costs and for various types of buildings, the impact of forest cover changes on the probability distribution of runout distances, impact pressures and subsequent risk estimates. A typical case study of the French Alps shows that, from a completely deforested to a completely forested path, avalanche risk for a building located downslope decreases by 53–99%, depending on how forest cover is accounted for in avalanche statistical–dynamical modeling. Local forest cover data inferred from old maps and photographs further demonstrates that a 20–60% risk reduction actually occurred between 1825 and 2017 at the site because of the afforestation dynamics, with significant modulations according to the considered building technology. These results (1) assert the protective role of forests against snow avalanches, (2) highlight the potential of combining nature-based solutions with traditional structural measures to reduce risk to acceptable levels at reasonable costs, (3) suggest a significant decrease in risk to settlements in areas that encountered similar forest cover changes and (4) open the door to the quantification of long-term avalanche risk changes as a function of changes of all its hazard, vulnerability and exposure drivers in various mountain context.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022001034/type/journal_articleAvalanchesglaciological natural hazardssnow |
| spellingShingle | Taline Zgheib Florie Giacona Samuel Morin Anne-Marie Granet-Abisset Philoméne Favier Nicolas Eckert Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes Journal of Glaciology Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow |
| title | Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| title_full | Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| title_fullStr | Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| title_short | Diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| title_sort | diachronic quantitative snow avalanche risk assessment as a function of forest cover changes |
| topic | Avalanches glaciological natural hazards snow |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143022001034/type/journal_article |
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