Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios
<p>Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events as those h...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/3039/2020/nhess-20-3039-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818245183422070784 |
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| author | K. Goda K. Goda T. Yasuda N. Mori A. Muhammad R. De Risi F. De Luca |
| author_facet | K. Goda K. Goda T. Yasuda N. Mori A. Muhammad R. De Risi F. De Luca |
| author_sort | K. Goda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events as those having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10 m and coastal defence structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such tsunami hazard assessments and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T14:28:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1feb34d81e034bcba26c3fe35272833a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T14:28:52Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-1feb34d81e034bcba26c3fe35272833a2022-12-22T00:21:35ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812020-11-01203039305610.5194/nhess-20-3039-2020Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenariosK. Goda0K. Goda1T. Yasuda2N. Mori3A. Muhammad4R. De Risi5F. De Luca6Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, CanadaDepartment of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, CanadaFaculty of Environmental and Urban Engineering, Kansai University, Suita, Osaka, JapanDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, United KingdomDepartment of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, United KingdomDepartment of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, United Kingdom<p>Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events as those having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10 m and coastal defence structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such tsunami hazard assessments and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/3039/2020/nhess-20-3039-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | K. Goda K. Goda T. Yasuda N. Mori A. Muhammad R. De Risi F. De Luca Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| title_full | Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| title_short | Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| title_sort | uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in kuroshio kochi prefecture japan using the nankai tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/3039/2020/nhess-20-3039-2020.pdf |
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