Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study
Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to as...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Microbiology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1118001/full |
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| author | Ling Han Zhaobin Sun Zhaobin Sun Ziming Li Yunfei Zhang Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Tian Qin |
| author_facet | Ling Han Zhaobin Sun Zhaobin Sun Ziming Li Yunfei Zhang Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Tian Qin |
| author_sort | Ling Han |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25–33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60–95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:40:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1ff45cef9bef43688c218c9e85868096 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-302X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:40:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Microbiology |
| spelling | doaj.art-1ff45cef9bef43688c218c9e858680962023-02-23T11:41:18ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Microbiology1664-302X2023-02-011410.3389/fmicb.2023.11180011118001Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective studyLing Han0Zhaobin Sun1Zhaobin Sun2Ziming Li3Yunfei Zhang4Shilu Tong5Shilu Tong6Shilu Tong7Shilu Tong8Tian Qin9State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaChina Meteorological Administration Urban Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaShanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, ChinaCenter for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, AustraliaState Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaScrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25–33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60–95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1118001/fullscrub typhusrickettsiosisvector-borne diseasesclimatic factorsrisk windowregional heterogeneity |
| spellingShingle | Ling Han Zhaobin Sun Zhaobin Sun Ziming Li Yunfei Zhang Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Shilu Tong Tian Qin Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study Frontiers in Microbiology scrub typhus rickettsiosis vector-borne diseases climatic factors risk window regional heterogeneity |
| title | Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full | Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_short | Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_sort | impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in china from 2006 to 2020 a multicenter retrospective study |
| topic | scrub typhus rickettsiosis vector-borne diseases climatic factors risk window regional heterogeneity |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1118001/full |
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