Analysis of Rice Import Trend and it`s Economic Factors: Case of Iran
Rice comes second after wheat in Iran`s food consumption economy. However Iran is one of the greatest rice importer countries all over the world because of it`s rising population and recent growth in GDP. This paper presents an analysis of cointegration test between rice import and it`s economic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Islamic Azad University
2014-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ijamad.com/4(2)/IJAMADJune2014P81.pdf |
| Summary: | Rice comes second after wheat in Iran`s food consumption
economy. However Iran is one of the greatest rice importer
countries all over the world because of it`s rising population and
recent growth in GDP. This paper presents an analysis of cointegration
test between rice import and it`s economic factors over
the period 1990-2011, employing Engle-Granger model. At first,
Dickey-Fuller test shows that all variables are non-stationary at
data level, so their first difference (that are stationary series) are
used. Secondly, Engle-Granger testing presents existence of a
long-run relationship between rice import and it`s economic
factors including per capita GDP, foreign exchange rate and domestic
price. At last, rice import model was estimated using
OLS method which proves that all independent variables are
significant at high level and the sign of coefficients are consistent
with theoretical expectations So that import of rice positively
correlates with Per capita GDP, domestic price and negatively
correlates with foreigh exchange rate. With respect to increasing
demand for rice, government should keep domestic policies for
the rise of rice production so that the need for import falls in the
long-run. |
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| ISSN: | 2159-5852 2159-5860 |