Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy)
Future climate change is expected to significantly alter the growth of vegetation in grassland systems, in terms of length of the growing season, forage production, and climate-altering gas emissions. The main objective of this work was, therefore, to simulate the future impacts of foreseen climate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/351 |
| _version_ | 1827756857657131008 |
|---|---|
| author | Edoardo Bellini Raphaël Martin Giovanni Argenti Nicolina Staglianò Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Camilla Dibari Marco Moriondo Gianni Bellocchi |
| author_facet | Edoardo Bellini Raphaël Martin Giovanni Argenti Nicolina Staglianò Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Camilla Dibari Marco Moriondo Gianni Bellocchi |
| author_sort | Edoardo Bellini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Future climate change is expected to significantly alter the growth of vegetation in grassland systems, in terms of length of the growing season, forage production, and climate-altering gas emissions. The main objective of this work was, therefore, to simulate the future impacts of foreseen climate change in the context of two pastoral systems in the central Italian Apennines and test different adaptation strategies to cope with these changes. The PaSim simulation model was, therefore, used for this purpose. After calibration by comparison with observed data of aboveground biomass (AGB) and leaf area index (LAI), simulations were able to produce various future outputs, such as length of growing season, AGB, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for two time windows (i.e., 2011–2040 and 2041–2070) using 14 global climate models (GCMs) for the generation of future climate data, according to RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios under business-as-usual management (BaU). As a result of increasing temperatures, the fertilizing effect of CO<sub>2</sub>, and a similar trend in water content between present and future, simulations showed a lengthening of the season (i.e., mean increase: +8.5 and 14 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2011–2040, +19 and 31.5 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2041–2070) and a rise in forage production (i.e., mean biomass peak increase of the two test sites under BaU: +53.7% and 62.75% for RCP4.5. and RCP8.5, respectively, in the 2011–2040 period, +115.3% and 176.9% in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041–2070, respectively,). Subsequently, three different alternative management strategies were tested: a 20% rise in animal stocking rate (+20 GI), a 15% increase in grazing length (+15 GL), and a combination of these two management factors (+20 GI × 15 GL). Simulation results on alternative management strategies suggest that the favorable conditions for forage production could support the increase in animal stocking rate and grazing length of alternative management strategies (i.e., +20 GI, +15 GL, +20 GI × 15 GL). Under future projections, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and nitrogen oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions decreased, whereas methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) rose. The simulated GHG future changes varied in magnitude according to the different adaptation strategies tested. The development and assessment of adaptation strategies for extensive pastures of the Central Apennines provide a basis for appropriate agricultural policy and optimal land management in response to the ongoing climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:33:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2045321f6d794efd9c2a958cc210d843 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:33:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-2045321f6d794efd9c2a958cc210d8432023-11-16T21:36:08ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-01-0112235110.3390/land12020351Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy)Edoardo Bellini0Raphaël Martin1Giovanni Argenti2Nicolina Staglianò3Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes4Camilla Dibari5Marco Moriondo6Gianni Bellocchi7Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Florence, ItalyUnité Mixte de Recherche sur l’Écosystème Prairial (UREP), Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UREP, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, FranceDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Florence, ItalyInstitute of BioEconomy, Italian National Research Council (IBE-CNR), 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, ItalyDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Florence, ItalyInstitute of BioEconomy, Italian National Research Council (IBE-CNR), 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, ItalyUnité Mixte de Recherche sur l’Écosystème Prairial (UREP), Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UREP, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, FranceFuture climate change is expected to significantly alter the growth of vegetation in grassland systems, in terms of length of the growing season, forage production, and climate-altering gas emissions. The main objective of this work was, therefore, to simulate the future impacts of foreseen climate change in the context of two pastoral systems in the central Italian Apennines and test different adaptation strategies to cope with these changes. The PaSim simulation model was, therefore, used for this purpose. After calibration by comparison with observed data of aboveground biomass (AGB) and leaf area index (LAI), simulations were able to produce various future outputs, such as length of growing season, AGB, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for two time windows (i.e., 2011–2040 and 2041–2070) using 14 global climate models (GCMs) for the generation of future climate data, according to RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios under business-as-usual management (BaU). As a result of increasing temperatures, the fertilizing effect of CO<sub>2</sub>, and a similar trend in water content between present and future, simulations showed a lengthening of the season (i.e., mean increase: +8.5 and 14 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2011–2040, +19 and 31.5 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the period 2041–2070) and a rise in forage production (i.e., mean biomass peak increase of the two test sites under BaU: +53.7% and 62.75% for RCP4.5. and RCP8.5, respectively, in the 2011–2040 period, +115.3% and 176.9% in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041–2070, respectively,). Subsequently, three different alternative management strategies were tested: a 20% rise in animal stocking rate (+20 GI), a 15% increase in grazing length (+15 GL), and a combination of these two management factors (+20 GI × 15 GL). Simulation results on alternative management strategies suggest that the favorable conditions for forage production could support the increase in animal stocking rate and grazing length of alternative management strategies (i.e., +20 GI, +15 GL, +20 GI × 15 GL). Under future projections, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and nitrogen oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions decreased, whereas methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) rose. The simulated GHG future changes varied in magnitude according to the different adaptation strategies tested. The development and assessment of adaptation strategies for extensive pastures of the Central Apennines provide a basis for appropriate agricultural policy and optimal land management in response to the ongoing climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/351grasslandsmodelingPaSimclimatic scenariosaboveground biomass |
| spellingShingle | Edoardo Bellini Raphaël Martin Giovanni Argenti Nicolina Staglianò Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes Camilla Dibari Marco Moriondo Gianni Bellocchi Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) Land grasslands modeling PaSim climatic scenarios aboveground biomass |
| title | Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) |
| title_full | Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) |
| title_fullStr | Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) |
| title_short | Opportunities for Adaptation to Climate Change of Extensively Grazed Pastures in the Central Apennines (Italy) |
| title_sort | opportunities for adaptation to climate change of extensively grazed pastures in the central apennines italy |
| topic | grasslands modeling PaSim climatic scenarios aboveground biomass |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/351 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT edoardobellini opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT raphaelmartin opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT giovanniargenti opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT nicolinastagliano opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT sergicostafredaaumedes opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT camilladibari opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT marcomoriondo opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly AT giannibellocchi opportunitiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeofextensivelygrazedpasturesinthecentralapenninesitaly |