Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada
The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from f...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environments |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/10/1/12 |
| _version_ | 1797442822647840768 |
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| author | Anabel G. Winitsky David M. Meko Alan H. Taylor Franco Biondi |
| author_facet | Anabel G. Winitsky David M. Meko Alan H. Taylor Franco Biondi |
| author_sort | Anabel G. Winitsky |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (<i>Abies magnifica</i>, <i>Juniperus grandis</i>, <i>Pinus ponderosa</i>, <i>Pinus jeffreyi</i>, and <i>Tsuga mertensiana</i>) in the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions of water-year precipitation using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, and the reconstructions are analyzed for their ability to track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach is introduced to statistically classify positive and negative events, and the success of matching observed events with the reconstructions is evaluated using a hypergeometric test. Results suggest that reconstructions can effectively track whiplash events, but that tracking ability differs among species and sites. Although negative (dry-to-wet) events (1921–1989) are generally tracked more consistently than positive events, <i>Tsuga</i> stands out for strong tracking of positive events. Tracking ability shows no clear relationship to variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting that efforts to extend whiplash records with tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models for the whiplash signal. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:47:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2052cdc7f1f3433c81218ade78d868ac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3298 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:47:38Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environments |
| spelling | doaj.art-2052cdc7f1f3433c81218ade78d868ac2023-11-30T22:10:01ZengMDPI AGEnvironments2076-32982023-01-011011210.3390/environments10010012Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra NevadaAnabel G. Winitsky0David M. Meko1Alan H. Taylor2Franco Biondi3Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USALaboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USADepartment of Geography and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USADendroLab, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USAThe year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (<i>Abies magnifica</i>, <i>Juniperus grandis</i>, <i>Pinus ponderosa</i>, <i>Pinus jeffreyi</i>, and <i>Tsuga mertensiana</i>) in the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions of water-year precipitation using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, and the reconstructions are analyzed for their ability to track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach is introduced to statistically classify positive and negative events, and the success of matching observed events with the reconstructions is evaluated using a hypergeometric test. Results suggest that reconstructions can effectively track whiplash events, but that tracking ability differs among species and sites. Although negative (dry-to-wet) events (1921–1989) are generally tracked more consistently than positive events, <i>Tsuga</i> stands out for strong tracking of positive events. Tracking ability shows no clear relationship to variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting that efforts to extend whiplash records with tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models for the whiplash signal.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/10/1/12tree ringsSierra Nevadaclimate variabilityreconstructiondendroclimatology |
| spellingShingle | Anabel G. Winitsky David M. Meko Alan H. Taylor Franco Biondi Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada Environments tree rings Sierra Nevada climate variability reconstruction dendroclimatology |
| title | Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada |
| title_full | Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada |
| title_fullStr | Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada |
| title_short | Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada |
| title_sort | species sensitivity to hydrologic whiplash in the tree ring record of the high sierra nevada |
| topic | tree rings Sierra Nevada climate variability reconstruction dendroclimatology |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/10/1/12 |
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