Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) constitutes a significant global health concern characterized by its high infection rates and widespread distribution worldwide. While influenza viruses, primarily types A and B, are primary contributors to ILI cases, other respiratory viruses also play a role in its pre...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933823000493 |
| _version_ | 1827397047449288704 |
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| author | Ilham Saiful Fauzi Imaniah Bazlina Wardani Nuning Nuraini |
| author_facet | Ilham Saiful Fauzi Imaniah Bazlina Wardani Nuning Nuraini |
| author_sort | Ilham Saiful Fauzi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) constitutes a significant global health concern characterized by its high infection rates and widespread distribution worldwide. While influenza viruses, primarily types A and B, are primary contributors to ILI cases, other respiratory viruses also play a role in its prevalence. Jakarta, Indonesia’s largest and densely populated city, has consistently reported a notable weekly number of ILI cases from 2016 to mid-2022. Intriguingly, this pattern of cases is irregular and does not exhibit a direct association with seasonal climate fluctuations. In response to this complex scenario, we have developed a SLIR mathematical model featuring a cumulative generating operator in the form of a multiple-terms sigmoid function, obtained from weekly cumulative data to derive model solutions. A total of 12 terms within the sigmoid function yielded a decent fit to the actual data spanning 339 weeks. Our correlation analysis unveiled distinct temporal relationships within the model, revealing an 8-week time lag between the dynamics of the infection rate and the latent compartment, along with a 2-week lag marking the incubation period between the latent and infected compartments. Furthermore, the effective reproduction number displayed recurrent fluctuations around a threshold of 1, indicating the endemic characteristics where infection persists within the population. This in-depth comprehension of ILI transmission dynamics and effective reproduction numbers plays a significant role in devising control measures and informed policy-making decisions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:01:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-205cd00cef1a4e65b750b664b5794ad7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2588-9338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:01:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity |
| spelling | doaj.art-205cd00cef1a4e65b750b664b5794ad72023-12-28T05:18:34ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity2588-93382023-12-0154135145Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR modelIlham Saiful Fauzi0Imaniah Bazlina Wardani1Nuning Nuraini2Department of Accounting, Politeknik Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia; Corresponding author.Study Program of Biology Education, Faculty of Education and Teacher Training, UIN Kiai Haji Achmad Siddiq Jember, Jember, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia; Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, IndonesiaInfluenza-Like Illness (ILI) constitutes a significant global health concern characterized by its high infection rates and widespread distribution worldwide. While influenza viruses, primarily types A and B, are primary contributors to ILI cases, other respiratory viruses also play a role in its prevalence. Jakarta, Indonesia’s largest and densely populated city, has consistently reported a notable weekly number of ILI cases from 2016 to mid-2022. Intriguingly, this pattern of cases is irregular and does not exhibit a direct association with seasonal climate fluctuations. In response to this complex scenario, we have developed a SLIR mathematical model featuring a cumulative generating operator in the form of a multiple-terms sigmoid function, obtained from weekly cumulative data to derive model solutions. A total of 12 terms within the sigmoid function yielded a decent fit to the actual data spanning 339 weeks. Our correlation analysis unveiled distinct temporal relationships within the model, revealing an 8-week time lag between the dynamics of the infection rate and the latent compartment, along with a 2-week lag marking the incubation period between the latent and infected compartments. Furthermore, the effective reproduction number displayed recurrent fluctuations around a threshold of 1, indicating the endemic characteristics where infection persists within the population. This in-depth comprehension of ILI transmission dynamics and effective reproduction numbers plays a significant role in devising control measures and informed policy-making decisions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258893382300049300-0199-00 |
| spellingShingle | Ilham Saiful Fauzi Imaniah Bazlina Wardani Nuning Nuraini Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 00-01 99-00 |
| title | Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model |
| title_full | Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model |
| title_short | Epidemiological modeling of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) transmission in Jakarta, Indonesia through cumulative generating operator on SLIR model |
| title_sort | epidemiological modeling of influenza like illness ili transmission in jakarta indonesia through cumulative generating operator on slir model |
| topic | 00-01 99-00 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588933823000493 |
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