Underweighting of rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of voluntary health applications
Research on small repeated decisions from experience suggests that people often behave as if they underweight rare events and choose the options that are frequently better. In a pandemic, this tendency implies complacency and reckless behavior. Furthermore, behavioral contagion exacerbates this prob...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2021-03-01
|
| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/20/201217/jdm201217.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797726978203189248 |
|---|---|
| author | Ori Plonsky Yefim Roth Ido Erev |
| author_facet | Ori Plonsky Yefim Roth Ido Erev |
| author_sort | Ori Plonsky |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on small repeated decisions from experience suggests
that people often behave as if they underweight rare events and choose the
options that are frequently better. In a pandemic, this tendency implies
complacency and reckless behavior. Furthermore, behavioral contagion
exacerbates this problem. In two pre-registered experiments (total N = 312), we
validate these predictions and highlight a potential solution. Groups of
participants played a repeated game in one of two versions. In the basic
version, people clearly preferred the dangerous reckless behavior that was
better most of the time over the safer responsible behavior. In the augmented
version, we gave application that frequently saves time but can sometimes have
high costs. This alternative was stochastically dominated by the responsible
choice option and was thus normatively irrelevant to the decision participants
made. Nevertheless, most participants chose the new (“irrelevant”) alternative,
providing the first clear demonstration of underweighting of rare events in
fully described social games. We discuss public policies that can make the
responsible use of health applications better most of the time, thus helping
them get traction despite being voluntary. In one field demonstration of this
idea amid the COVID-19 pandemic, usage rates of a contact tracing application
among nursing home employees more than tripled when using the app also started
saving them a little time each day, and the high usage rates sustained over at
least four weeks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:53:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2068c566bd0c40d889ec643b9a79a0f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:53:14Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-2068c566bd0c40d889ec643b9a79a0f12023-09-02T06:44:22ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752021-03-01162267289Underweighting of rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of voluntary health applicationsOri PlonskyYefim RothIdo ErevResearch on small repeated decisions from experience suggests that people often behave as if they underweight rare events and choose the options that are frequently better. In a pandemic, this tendency implies complacency and reckless behavior. Furthermore, behavioral contagion exacerbates this problem. In two pre-registered experiments (total N = 312), we validate these predictions and highlight a potential solution. Groups of participants played a repeated game in one of two versions. In the basic version, people clearly preferred the dangerous reckless behavior that was better most of the time over the safer responsible behavior. In the augmented version, we gave application that frequently saves time but can sometimes have high costs. This alternative was stochastically dominated by the responsible choice option and was thus normatively irrelevant to the decision participants made. Nevertheless, most participants chose the new (“irrelevant”) alternative, providing the first clear demonstration of underweighting of rare events in fully described social games. We discuss public policies that can make the responsible use of health applications better most of the time, thus helping them get traction despite being voluntary. In one field demonstration of this idea amid the COVID-19 pandemic, usage rates of a contact tracing application among nursing home employees more than tripled when using the app also started saving them a little time each day, and the high usage rates sustained over at least four weeks.http://journal.sjdm.org/20/201217/jdm201217.pdfdecisions from experience; covid-19; behavioral game theorynakeywords |
| spellingShingle | Ori Plonsky Yefim Roth Ido Erev Underweighting of rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of voluntary health applications Judgment and Decision Making decisions from experience; covid-19; behavioral game theorynakeywords |
| title | Underweighting of
rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of
voluntary health applications |
| title_full | Underweighting of
rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of
voluntary health applications |
| title_fullStr | Underweighting of
rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of
voluntary health applications |
| title_full_unstemmed | Underweighting of
rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of
voluntary health applications |
| title_short | Underweighting of
rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of
voluntary health applications |
| title_sort | underweighting of rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of voluntary health applications |
| topic | decisions from experience; covid-19; behavioral game theorynakeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/20/201217/jdm201217.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oriplonsky underweightingofrareeventsinsocialinteractionsanditsimplicationstothedesignofvoluntaryhealthapplications AT yefimroth underweightingofrareeventsinsocialinteractionsanditsimplicationstothedesignofvoluntaryhealthapplications AT idoerev underweightingofrareeventsinsocialinteractionsanditsimplicationstothedesignofvoluntaryhealthapplications |