Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method
Boreal summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is difficult to predict in current climate models and has become a challenging issue. To address this issue, a new analog-based correction method has been developed. Our analysis reveals a substantial correlation between the prediction errors...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/24/5669 |
| _version_ | 1827573684400816128 |
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| author | Lin Wang Hong-Li Ren Xiangde Xu Li Gao Bin Chen Jian Li Huizheng Che Yaqiang Wang Xiaoye Zhang |
| author_facet | Lin Wang Hong-Li Ren Xiangde Xu Li Gao Bin Chen Jian Li Huizheng Che Yaqiang Wang Xiaoye Zhang |
| author_sort | Lin Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Boreal summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is difficult to predict in current climate models and has become a challenging issue. To address this issue, a new analog-based correction method has been developed. Our analysis reveals a substantial correlation between the prediction errors of TP summer precipitation (TPSP) and previous February anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the key regions of tropical oceans. Consequently, these SST anomalies can be selected as effective predictors for correcting prediction errors. With remote-sensing-based and observational datasets employed as benchmarks, the new method was validated using the rolling-independent validation method for the period 1992–2018. The results clearly demonstrate that the new SST analog-based correction method of dynamical models can evidently improve prediction skills of summer precipitation in most TP regions. In comparison to the original model predictions, the method exhibits higher skills in terms of temporal and spatial skill scores. This study offers a valuable tool for effectively improving the TPSP prediction in dynamical models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:23:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-20f6ba263586417fb40ededacd12e9b4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:23:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-20f6ba263586417fb40ededacd12e9b42023-12-22T14:38:56ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-12-011524566910.3390/rs15245669Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction MethodLin Wang0Hong-Li Ren1Xiangde Xu2Li Gao3Bin Chen4Jian Li5Huizheng Che6Yaqiang Wang7Xiaoye Zhang8State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaEnsemble Forecasting Division, CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center (CEMC), Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Artificial Intelligence for Meteorological, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaBoreal summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is difficult to predict in current climate models and has become a challenging issue. To address this issue, a new analog-based correction method has been developed. Our analysis reveals a substantial correlation between the prediction errors of TP summer precipitation (TPSP) and previous February anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the key regions of tropical oceans. Consequently, these SST anomalies can be selected as effective predictors for correcting prediction errors. With remote-sensing-based and observational datasets employed as benchmarks, the new method was validated using the rolling-independent validation method for the period 1992–2018. The results clearly demonstrate that the new SST analog-based correction method of dynamical models can evidently improve prediction skills of summer precipitation in most TP regions. In comparison to the original model predictions, the method exhibits higher skills in terms of temporal and spatial skill scores. This study offers a valuable tool for effectively improving the TPSP prediction in dynamical models.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/24/5669Tibetan Plateausummer precipitation predictionanalog-based correctionprediction errorsmulti-model ensemble |
| spellingShingle | Lin Wang Hong-Li Ren Xiangde Xu Li Gao Bin Chen Jian Li Huizheng Che Yaqiang Wang Xiaoye Zhang Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method Remote Sensing Tibetan Plateau summer precipitation prediction analog-based correction prediction errors multi-model ensemble |
| title | Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method |
| title_full | Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method |
| title_fullStr | Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method |
| title_short | Improving Predictions of Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation Using a Sea Surface Temperature Analog-Based Correction Method |
| title_sort | improving predictions of tibetan plateau summer precipitation using a sea surface temperature analog based correction method |
| topic | Tibetan Plateau summer precipitation prediction analog-based correction prediction errors multi-model ensemble |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/24/5669 |
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