Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing
Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it e...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2006-11-01
|
| Series: | Demographic Research |
| Online Access: | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/16/ |
| _version_ | 1819154635060936704 |
|---|---|
| author | Michaela Kreyenfeld Jan M. Hoem |
| author_facet | Michaela Kreyenfeld Jan M. Hoem |
| author_sort | Michaela Kreyenfeld |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T15:24:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-213c4078015c4366aa52db6d9f7987c0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1435-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T15:24:13Z |
| publishDate | 2006-11-01 |
| publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Demographic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-213c4078015c4366aa52db6d9f7987c02022-12-21T18:21:32ZengMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchDemographic Research1435-98712006-11-011516Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearingMichaela KreyenfeldJan M. HoemProcedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures.http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/16/ |
| spellingShingle | Michaela Kreyenfeld Jan M. Hoem Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing Demographic Research |
| title | Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing |
| title_full | Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing |
| title_fullStr | Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing |
| title_short | Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research: Part 1: Education and first childbearing |
| title_sort | anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life course research part 1 education and first childbearing |
| url | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/16/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT michaelakreyenfeld anticipatoryanalysisanditsalternativesinlifecourseresearchpart1educationandfirstchildbearing AT janmhoem anticipatoryanalysisanditsalternativesinlifecourseresearchpart1educationandfirstchildbearing |