Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
<p>Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging.</p> <p&g...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2175/2020/nhess-20-2175-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and
human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However,
human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers
and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging.</p>
<p>Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru, which
offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks
around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk
driven by physical and socioeconomic factors and processes. Furthermore, it
is the object of a prominent climate litigation case, wherein a local Peruvian
citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake
Palcacocha.</p>
<p>Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of
risk, we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal from flood risk to greenhouse gas
emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped
(and increased) by interacting socioeconomic, institutional and cultural
processes over the past few decades.</p>
<p>The case raises important questions about the differentiation of
responsibilities relating to flood risk of both global and local agents, which
are, however, difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha, where we reveal a complex
network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from
this, we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on
responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support
strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities and that local
institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and
policies in collaboration with and driven by local communities.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |