Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles
How species respond to climate change may impact their extinction probability. Here we link climatology and ecology to tackle a globally important conservation question. For sea turtles, there are concerns that climate warming will cause both the feminization of populations as well as reduced hatchl...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.221002 |
| _version_ | 1827978062845706240 |
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| author | Jacques-Olivier Laloë Graeme C. Hays |
| author_facet | Jacques-Olivier Laloë Graeme C. Hays |
| author_sort | Jacques-Olivier Laloë |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | How species respond to climate change may impact their extinction probability. Here we link climatology and ecology to tackle a globally important conservation question. For sea turtles, there are concerns that climate warming will cause both the feminization of populations as well as reduced hatchling survival. For 58 nesting sites across the world spanning all seven sea turtle species, we investigated whether warming might be avoided by shifts in nesting phenology to a cooler part of the year. We show that even with the most extreme phenological shift that has been reported to date—an 18-day advance in nesting per °C increase in sea surface temperature (SST)—temperatures will continue to increase at nesting sites with climate warming. We estimate that SST at nesting sites will rise by an average of 0.6°C (standard deviation = 0.9°C, n = 58) when we model a 1.5°C rise in SST combined with a best-case-scenario shift in nesting. Since sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, these temperature rises could lead to increasingly female-biased sex ratios as well as reduced hatchling production at sites across the world. These findings underscore concerns for the long-term survival of this iconic group. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:15:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2181ff985dc946dd850fbeb3ba7716b1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T21:15:58Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-2181ff985dc946dd850fbeb3ba7716b12023-03-28T08:51:00ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032023-02-0110210.1098/rsos.221002Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtlesJacques-Olivier Laloë0Graeme C. Hays1Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria 3216, AustraliaDeakin University, Geelong, Victoria 3216, AustraliaHow species respond to climate change may impact their extinction probability. Here we link climatology and ecology to tackle a globally important conservation question. For sea turtles, there are concerns that climate warming will cause both the feminization of populations as well as reduced hatchling survival. For 58 nesting sites across the world spanning all seven sea turtle species, we investigated whether warming might be avoided by shifts in nesting phenology to a cooler part of the year. We show that even with the most extreme phenological shift that has been reported to date—an 18-day advance in nesting per °C increase in sea surface temperature (SST)—temperatures will continue to increase at nesting sites with climate warming. We estimate that SST at nesting sites will rise by an average of 0.6°C (standard deviation = 0.9°C, n = 58) when we model a 1.5°C rise in SST combined with a best-case-scenario shift in nesting. Since sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, these temperature rises could lead to increasingly female-biased sex ratios as well as reduced hatchling production at sites across the world. These findings underscore concerns for the long-term survival of this iconic group.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.221002climate change adaptationmarine turtlesclimatologyconservationendangered species |
| spellingShingle | Jacques-Olivier Laloë Graeme C. Hays Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles Royal Society Open Science climate change adaptation marine turtles climatology conservation endangered species |
| title | Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles |
| title_full | Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles |
| title_fullStr | Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles |
| title_short | Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles |
| title_sort | can a present day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology a case study with sea turtles |
| topic | climate change adaptation marine turtles climatology conservation endangered species |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.221002 |
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