Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production
Internal climate variability (ICV) is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate projections, yet it is seldom quantified for projections of crop production. Our study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty due to ICV in projections of crop productions in Canada. We utilize climate scenarios...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab88fc |
| _version_ | 1797747440283025408 |
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| author | Budong Qian Qi Jing Ward Smith Brian Grant Alex J Cannon Xuebin Zhang |
| author_facet | Budong Qian Qi Jing Ward Smith Brian Grant Alex J Cannon Xuebin Zhang |
| author_sort | Budong Qian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Internal climate variability (ICV) is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate projections, yet it is seldom quantified for projections of crop production. Our study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty due to ICV in projections of crop productions in Canada. We utilize climate scenarios from two large ensembles (LEs, CanESM2-LE and CanRCM4-LE with 25 members each) as inputs to the crop models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer. We simulate crop yields for canola, maize and spring wheat under the future climates of four global warming levels. The coefficient of variation (CV) of the projected crop production across the LE members is used to quantify the uncertainty related to ICV and this is compared with the CVs generated using the 20 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Crop production in Canada could increase with global warming, e.g. spring wheat production could increase by up to 21% at the warming level of 3.0 °C. The projections often produce larger uncertainty associated with the GCMs than from ICV at all warming levels above 2.0 °C. The results from an asymptotic test for the equality of CVs show a significant difference in CVs of projections of canola production between CanESM2-LE/CanRCM4-LE and CMIP5 for the warming level of 3.0 °C. However, the test results do not indicate a significant difference among the ensembles at all four warming levels for maize and spring wheat. The uncertainty due to ICV is often comparable to that associated with GCMs at the warming level of 1.5 °C, e.g. a CV of 6.0 and 6.4% for CanESM2-LE and CanRCM4-LE and 6.6% for CMIP5 in the projections of spring wheat production. We conclude there is a need to account for uncertainty related to ICV in projections of Canadian crop production, especially at lower warming levels. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-219196ea7c36457bb1c3c64b3cb362c3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-219196ea7c36457bb1c3c64b3cb362c32023-08-09T15:07:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115707403210.1088/1748-9326/ab88fcQuantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop productionBudong Qian0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5413-3114Qi Jing1Ward Smith2Brian Grant3Alex J Cannon4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8025-3790Xuebin Zhang5Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada , Ottawa, Canada; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada , Ottawa, CanadaOttawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada , Ottawa, CanadaOttawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada , Ottawa, CanadaClimate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada , Toronto, CanadaClimate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada , Toronto, CanadaInternal climate variability (ICV) is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate projections, yet it is seldom quantified for projections of crop production. Our study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty due to ICV in projections of crop productions in Canada. We utilize climate scenarios from two large ensembles (LEs, CanESM2-LE and CanRCM4-LE with 25 members each) as inputs to the crop models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer. We simulate crop yields for canola, maize and spring wheat under the future climates of four global warming levels. The coefficient of variation (CV) of the projected crop production across the LE members is used to quantify the uncertainty related to ICV and this is compared with the CVs generated using the 20 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Crop production in Canada could increase with global warming, e.g. spring wheat production could increase by up to 21% at the warming level of 3.0 °C. The projections often produce larger uncertainty associated with the GCMs than from ICV at all warming levels above 2.0 °C. The results from an asymptotic test for the equality of CVs show a significant difference in CVs of projections of canola production between CanESM2-LE/CanRCM4-LE and CMIP5 for the warming level of 3.0 °C. However, the test results do not indicate a significant difference among the ensembles at all four warming levels for maize and spring wheat. The uncertainty due to ICV is often comparable to that associated with GCMs at the warming level of 1.5 °C, e.g. a CV of 6.0 and 6.4% for CanESM2-LE and CanRCM4-LE and 6.6% for CMIP5 in the projections of spring wheat production. We conclude there is a need to account for uncertainty related to ICV in projections of Canadian crop production, especially at lower warming levels.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab88fcclimate change impactscrop productioncrop modellinginternal climate variabilityuncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Budong Qian Qi Jing Ward Smith Brian Grant Alex J Cannon Xuebin Zhang Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production Environmental Research Letters climate change impacts crop production crop modelling internal climate variability uncertainty |
| title | Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production |
| title_full | Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production |
| title_short | Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production |
| title_sort | quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of canadian crop production |
| topic | climate change impacts crop production crop modelling internal climate variability uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab88fc |
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