| Summary: | For the current stage of complex and changing network environments and correlated and synchronized vulnerability attacks, this study first fuses attack graph technology and Bayesian networks and constructs Bayesian attack graphs toportray the correlation relationships between vulnerabilities and discovering attackers’ intentions. Meanwhile, improving the Bayesian attack graph is difficult because it is difficult to achieve active updates and adapt to the changing network environment and other problems. The study proposed a detection method that integrated the Bayesian attack graph and the XGBoost incremental learning (IL) approach. Experiments showed that the IL model had an accuracy of 0.951, an accuracy of 0.999, a recall of 0.815, an F1 value of 0.898, and an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.907. The prediction ability of this method was better than that of the base model. Bayesian attack graphs fused with IL can detect attacks in the network more efficiently and accurately, so the probability of each node in the network system being attacked can be updated in real time.
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