Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate
Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We analyse...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-09-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/555/2015/esd-6-555-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818426078305189888 |
|---|---|
| author | E. A. Irvine K. P. Shine |
| author_facet | E. A. Irvine K. P. Shine |
| author_sort | E. A. Irvine |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is
important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold
ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with
temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We
analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency
of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative
Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean,
annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7%
by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period
1979–2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where
air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar
regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of
around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is
driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern
Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS
frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent
not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions
there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual
mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may
have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to
contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic,
aircraft technology and flight routing. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:24:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-220ce435831f4314bb8973232892bd69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:24:07Z |
| publishDate | 2015-09-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-220ce435831f4314bb8973232892bd692022-12-21T22:58:00ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872015-09-016255556810.5194/esd-6-555-2015Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climateE. A. Irvine0K. P. Shine1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKIce supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean, annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7% by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period 1979–2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic, aircraft technology and flight routing.http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/555/2015/esd-6-555-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. A. Irvine K. P. Shine Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| title_full | Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| title_short | Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| title_sort | ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate |
| url | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/555/2015/esd-6-555-2015.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eairvine icesupersaturationandthepotentialforcontrailformationinachangingclimate AT kpshine icesupersaturationandthepotentialforcontrailformationinachangingclimate |