| Summary: | The distribution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> is not homogenous, primarily due to variations in the CO<sub>2</sub> budgets of regional terrestrial ecosystems. To formulate a comprehensive strategy to combat the increasing global CO<sub>2</sub> levels and associated warming, it is crucial to consider both the distribution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and the CO<sub>2</sub> budgets of ecosystems. This study focused on analyzing the relationship between regional atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> budgets in China from 2010 to 2017. Initially, a robust estimation model of net ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> exchange was developed to calculate CO<sub>2</sub> budgets using collected emission data. Subsequently, Pearson correlation, redundancy analysis, and geographically weighted regression techniques were employed to examine the link between atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels, CO<sub>2</sub> budgets, and other meteorological factors at various spatial and temporal scales. The findings from the redundancy analysis and geographically weighted regression indicated that the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> content of each province could not be solely determined by the regional CO<sub>2</sub> budgets. However, a significant and positive correlation between atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and CO<sub>2</sub> budgets was observed in non-coastal provinces for a period of six months (R<sup>2</sup> ranging from 0.46 to 0.83). Consequently, it is essential to promote a balance between CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and the CO<sub>2</sub> uptake capacity of regional ecosystems. This balance would minimize positive CO<sub>2</sub> budgets and effectively mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels.
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