Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice
Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 |
| _version_ | 1797747291165032448 |
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| author | Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin |
| author_facet | Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin |
| author_sort | Peng Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C-B) and Greenland (GL) sea ice variability is closely linked to the year-to-year variations of the early autumn WNP TC formation frequency (TCF). Observational and numerical evidence proved that the excessive C-B and GL sea ice sustains from August to the following early autumn and triggers the southeastward propagation of the Rossby wave trains originating from the Arctic across Western Eurasia (Okhotsk Sea) to the WNP. The resultant anomalous low pressure over WNP provides suitable environmental conditions for TC formation―the enhancement of the lower-level relative vorticity and water moisture, and the decrease of vertical wind shear. For the reduced sea ice, an opposite situation tends to emerge. The persistent combined sea ice signal makes it a physically meaningful precursor for TCF prediction. The cross-validated hindcast and independent forecast based on both the tropical SST and the Arctic sea ice precursors present that the TCF index is predicted with much higher correlation coefficients than those of the empirical models with only the tropical SST predictors. The results demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice truly promotes the seasonal prediction capability of the WNP TCF. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f2023-08-09T15:17:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-01171212401210.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea icePeng Zhang0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3600-2748Zhiwei Wu1Zhiwei Zhu2Rui Jin3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, and Shanghai Scientific Frontier Base of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, and Shanghai Scientific Frontier Base of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaShanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration , Shanghai 200030, People’s Republic of ChinaSeasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C-B) and Greenland (GL) sea ice variability is closely linked to the year-to-year variations of the early autumn WNP TC formation frequency (TCF). Observational and numerical evidence proved that the excessive C-B and GL sea ice sustains from August to the following early autumn and triggers the southeastward propagation of the Rossby wave trains originating from the Arctic across Western Eurasia (Okhotsk Sea) to the WNP. The resultant anomalous low pressure over WNP provides suitable environmental conditions for TC formation―the enhancement of the lower-level relative vorticity and water moisture, and the decrease of vertical wind shear. For the reduced sea ice, an opposite situation tends to emerge. The persistent combined sea ice signal makes it a physically meaningful precursor for TCF prediction. The cross-validated hindcast and independent forecast based on both the tropical SST and the Arctic sea ice precursors present that the TCF index is predicted with much higher correlation coefficients than those of the empirical models with only the tropical SST predictors. The results demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice truly promotes the seasonal prediction capability of the WNP TCF.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0Arctic sea iceWNP TC formation frequencyseasonal prediction |
| spellingShingle | Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice Environmental Research Letters Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction |
| title | Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
| title_full | Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
| title_fullStr | Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
| title_full_unstemmed | Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
| title_short | Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
| title_sort | promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western north pacific effect of arctic sea ice |
| topic | Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 |
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